Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 1st May 2025

Raw Sugar Updates

Jul’25 commenced its tenure at the top of the board quietly, although recent performances are weighing upon the market and what small movement we did see was again to the downside. Having spent much of the morning in the upper teens there was a push down to 17.08 ahead of noon, weakening the technical picture ahead of the US morning with specs no doubt looking to encourage additional selling pressure to the market. The efforts failed to yield the desired outcome as a period spent near to the lows ended with a short covering rally which moved the top half of the board back into credit and provided a glimmer of positive movement in an otherwise bleak picture. With no assistance being received from the wider macro we saw Jul’25 drop away from its 17.37 high to sit back toward the lower end of the range during the final two hours, bringing red back to the entire board and continuing the weight of recent performances on the whole board despite the losses only showing as single digits during the final hour. A move back to 17.28 ahead of the close was swiftly rebuffed on the call as shorts looked to defend their positions and ensure a continuation of this week’s chart movement. Their efforts succeeded in achieving a lower close for Jul’25 at 17.16 and at present it is hard to see what the trigger for a significant reversal of this trend might be.   

As anticipated, we saw a tender for 29,170 lots (1,481,910t) against May’25, the details of which can be seen below.

White Sugar Updates

It was a calmer picture being seen for the whites with morning trading seeing Aug’25 hold a band a small way below overnight levels, trading quietly and still holding above Augusts $489.60 low mark. Prices did dip as far as $490.10 late in the morning but scale buying ensured that the support level held as we waited to see what influence the US morning may have on proceedings. In the event there was no additional spec selling and so a short covering rally set in motion which took prices back up at reasonable pace to reach $496.70, not the most dynamic gains but providing some respite in the context of this week’s movements. This aided the Aug/Oct’25 spread which was by now trading upward to the $11.00 area, while the Aug/Jul’25 white premium also strengthened and was trading around $115.00. The Aug’25 gains were not fully maintained and the price action set back into the range as the afternoon progressed, while for the rest of the board things were not quite so rosy with losses still being recorded for all positions from Dec’25 onward, reflecting the wider sugar picture. The market did briefly attempt to look up heading into the close before being pushed back by shorts on the call, and while Aug’25 close a little higher at $493.80 there remains an air of vulnerability.