Raw Sugar Updates

There was some very light buying around as we opened however this soon dissipated which left Jul’25 tracking lower to 17.05 across the first hour and looking at the underlying support. Despite the negative technical leanings this area was only explored for a brief period before a sharp but thinly traded rally saw the price spike back to 17.30, movement which provided the basis for some consolidation away from the lows through the rest of the morning. Despite a mixed overall picture on commodities there was positive movement from the energy sector with some of the recent losses being reversed, and into the afternoon sugar followed suit with the market picking up some fresh buying that took prices beyond yesterdays highs and on through 17.50. This had some ripple effect on the spreads as 2025 values gained at a quicker pace than the middles/backs, though overall volume was still light and so such movement cannot be considered to be very significant. For the flat price trading levelled our either side of 17.50, maintaining the upper end of the band through the closing stages and achieving a settlement value on that exact 17.50 mark. This leaves the market direction still inconclusive with the same band having prevailed for more than a week and little sign of any decisive movement coming imminently. 

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Jul’25 17.19 17.55 17.05 17.50 0.37 17.52 47,953 346,616
Oct’25 17.34 17.67 17.19 17.64 0.36 17.66 24,182 161,255
Mar’26 17.71 18.03 17.58 18.00 0.32 18.00 13,571 118,804
May’26 17.10 17.33 16.99 17.33 0.26 17.31 7,491 56,364
Jul’26 16.87 17.07 16.77 17.06 0.22 17.04 2,797 38,695
Oct’26 16.95 17.12 16.87 17.12 0.19 17.11 1,762 32,047
Mar’27 17.27 17.48 17.26 17.48 0.16 17.47 623 16,168
May’27 16.95 17.13 16.94 17.13 0.14 17.13 265 7,510
Jul’27 16.85 17.01 16.85 17.01 0.12 17.01 181 9,919
Oct’27          –              –              –   17.13 0.12 16.98 58 6,259
Mar’28          –              –              –   17.48 0.11 17.44 18 584
                 
Total             98,901 794,221

White Sugar Updates

The weakness across the last 24 hours was weighing upon the market as we opened with initial unchanged levels preceding a dip to $484.00 which matched yesterday’s lowest level. Scale buying was not huge in this area, but it proved to be sufficient to prevent any additional losses being incurred before a short covering move took values back to the higher $480’s. Quieter trading across the rest of the morning saw prices remains away from the lows and enabled the market to mount a largely unexpected move back into the $490’s during the afternoon to put yesterdays technical weakness behind us. The steady progress extended Aug’25 to $495.80, with most of this gain maintained through towards the close, though it had little impact on the Aug/Oct’25 spread which has sat steadfast between $9 and $10 through recent daily flat price movements. White premium values meanwhile clawed back a small part of yesterday’s losses but still lagged shy of recent highs with Aug/Jul’25 valued at around $109.00 late in the afternoon. Aug’25 settled at $494.90 to bring a slow session to a conclusion, with more work needed from the buyers if this is to prove anything more than a pause in the recent downward trend. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 486.20 495.80 484.00 494.90 9.50 495.60 7,042 54,056
Oct’25 476.80 486.50 474.50 485.70 9.70 486.00 1,753 17,201
Dec’25 475.30 484.40 473.10 484.00 9.20 484.30 761 8,811
Mar’26 478.60 487.20 477.40 486.90 8.30 487.10 425 7,494
May’26 477.50 486.40 477.50 486.00 7.60 486.40 61 3,697
Aug’26 477.10 485.30 477.10 484.90 6.80 485.30 60 1,985
Oct’26 476.70 484.70 476.70 483.80 5.90 484.70 25 1,051
Dec’26 479.40 479.40 479.10 485.50 5.40 479.10 7 886
Mar’27 483.00 483.00 483.00 488.20 5.00 483.00 1 344
May’27 483.00 483.00 483.00 488.50 5.30 483.00 1 221
Aug’27          –              –              –   488.90 5.30 483.00            –   12
Oct’27          –              –              –   489.00 5.30            –   60
Dec’27          –              –              –   487.80 5.30            –                –  
Mar’28          –              –              –   487.10 5.30            –                –  
Total             10,136 95,818

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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