供应压力并消费高峰 | | China Weekly 2nd July 2019

 供应压力加大与夏季消费高峰共存,郑糖价格或区间震荡。 

市场热点 & 观点  

印度的天气情况和巴西的压榨进度成为国际糖市的主要支撑力。原糖7月合约面临大量原糖交割,且疲弱的原糖需求继续打压市场。  

无进一步消息的刺激下,我们认为郑糖价格仍维持区间震荡,加工糖持续供应和国储糖投放,巴基斯坦白糖和缅甸白糖进口对价格的压力仍在,但7月夏季消费高峰或加大终端对食糖需求量,对价格形成一定支撑。  

郑糖 & 纽约原糖价格 

 产区动态  

  • 云南省6月平均降雨量距过去五年均值低约16%1-6月累计降雨比五年均值低约28% 
  • 我们认为伴随后续降雨,云南产区干旱情况将得到快速缓解,甘蔗生长情况也将逐步恢复。 

 

  • 同时甘蔗产区也在持续报道草地贪夜蛾的危害作物情况和防治情况。 
  • 由于在虫害早期就加以控制和防治,而且草地贪夜蛾的主要危害作物为玉米和水稻,我们认为目前对19/20食糖产量的影响有限。 
  • 目前我们19/20榨季的食糖产量预估维持1100万吨。  

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Rosa Li

Rosa graduated from Jinan University in 2012 with a bachelor’s degree in Marketing. Rosa joined Czarnikow in 2014 and has been an analyst for 7 years in our Guangzhou office managing the data capture, analysis and visualisation within the Chinese sugar markets utilising her skills in SQL, Python and VBA while also providing content for our platform Czapp. Rosa is also responsible for the localization of Czapp in China – Czapp WeChat, she also assists with the commercial marketing in China and works towards strategy with the trading team.

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