多空消息交织,关注9月进口 – China Weekly 22nd October 2019

  • 上周国内白糖现货价格及期货价格均有所回落,源于甜菜糖上市,新增进口协议,地储投放传闻及南方开榨提前等利空消息。
  • 另一方面,截至目前甘蔗长势表现不佳,19/20榨季食糖产量减幅可能超过预期。
  • 本周关注9月进口数据。

市场热点回顾

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原白糖期货价格走势

  • 国际市场ICE原糖在12-13美分区间震荡,生产商套保限制限制上升空间。
  • 国内市场ZCE郑糖上周重心下移,但跌幅不大,1月合约结算价较上周下跌33/吨。
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国内白糖现货行情

  • 上周国内主产区白糖售价略有下行。因进入淡季市场需求降低,甜菜糖上市后供应增加。
  • 目前需关注甘蔗主产区的开榨进度,以及广西地储投放落实,南方供应面的宽松可能对糖价进一步施压。
  • 另一方面,因环保检查北方加工糖厂开工出货不畅,延缓了加工糖的供应,利好北方现货价格。
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2019/20 储备糖投放量

  • 目前预估2019年第四季度可能有60万吨国储糖将加工投放市场。

国储及地储历年投放量

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替代品价格走势与进口预估

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Rosa Li

Rosa graduated from Jinan University in 2012 with a bachelor’s degree in Marketing. Rosa joined Czarnikow in 2014 and has been an analyst for 7 years in our Guangzhou office managing the data capture, analysis and visualisation within the Chinese sugar markets utilising her skills in SQL, Python and VBA while also providing content for our platform Czapp. Rosa is also responsible for the localization of Czapp in China – Czapp WeChat, she also assists with the commercial marketing in China and works towards strategy with the trading team.

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