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Analyst Insights Analyst Insights April WASDE: Small Changes in Production

April 12, 2019

1 min read

April WASDE: Small Changes in Production

  • The WASDE has reduced the domestic sugar crops; this is likely to result in an adjustment of domestic demand. 
  • Alternatively, Mexico may be given a 38kmt allowance into the US market. 
  • Mexico still needs to export 1mmt to the world market. 

April WASDE Release  

  • The USDA has reduced domestic production in the latest WASDE release by 43k tonnes. 
  • We think that the USDA is more likely to reduce domestic demand (consumption) in future WASDE releases to restore stocks to the mandated 13.5% 
  • Therefore, we don’t expect an increase in imports to the US. 
  • Mexico, with their reduced access unlikely to increase, will need to export nearly 1mmt to the world market in 2019 to maintain normal domestic stocks. 
  • So far we have seen 105k tonnes shipped from Mexico to the world market in 2019 to Morocco and Azerbaijan (via Georgia) mostly.  
  • The need for exports and HFCS imports from the USA continues to be a problematic issue in Mexico with farmer demonstrations continuing. 

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