Insight Focus
The fertiliser price surge has raised risks for Brazilian farmers. Prices jumped in March while Russia suspended ammonium nitrate exports and China maintained restrictions, tightening supply for Brazil’s import-dependent market. The Iran cease-fire has provided little relief, and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz keeps risks to fertiliser costs and availability elevated.
Urea Prices Stay Elevated Despite Iran Cease-Fire
The ceasefire announced by President Trump on April 7 has not yet been enough to calm tensions, particularly as uncertainty persists over the course of the conflict and market direction. On April 8, urea futures for May delivery to Brazil continued to trade at elevated levels, at USD 757.5/tonne on the Chicago Stock Exchange — nearly double the average price paid at Brazilian ports in 2025.
In March, Brazilian farmers paid about USD 491.7/tonne for urea, up 20.7% from February, according to Comex. Prices remained below the 2022 peak, when the outbreak of war between Russia — one of the world’s largest fertiliser exporters — and Ukraine sent markets into turmoil. Even so, the upward trend remains a concern.
Source: Comex
Attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for around 20% of global fertiliser trade, and on supply constraints caused by the conflict in the region. Neither issue appears to have been resolved.
Russia, China Export Curbs Raise Supply Risks for Brazil
On the supply side, Russia’s recent decision to temporarily suspend ammonium nitrate exports has increased concerns about supply and prices. In Brazil, the warning sign remains: approximately 85% of all fertilisers used are imported, with Russia accounting for almost all ammonium nitrate purchases.
This input is considered essential for various crops due to its high nitrogen content. In corn crops, for example, it plays an important role in the development of ears and grains.
Source: Comex
According to the Russian government, the measure aims to protect the domestic market from disruption in the global fertiliser supply chain. Exports are expected to resume on the April 21 if there are no broader supply restrictions.
China has also decided to maintain restrictions on fertiliser exports, especially nitrogen- and potassium-based varieties, given the unstable situation in the Persian Gulf.
Once again, this is bad news for Brazilian farmers. China accounts for almost 20% of all chemical fertiliser imports by Brazil, according to Comex.
Source: Comex
Farmers Delay Fertiliser Purchases as Risks Persist
Perhaps the only relief is that Brazilian farmers have timing on their side. Most fertiliser purchases take place in the middle of the year, with a large portion of imports directed toward crops like soybeans, with planting generally starting in September or October in the Midwest.
Faced with high prices, many Brazilian farmers are choosing to postpone the purchase of at least part of their planned volume of fertilisers. If the Strait of Hormuz is not effectively reopened soon, fertiliser imports could fall this year, according to a Rabobank projection.
Faced with high prices, many Brazilian farmers are choosing to postpone the purchase of at least part of their planned fertiliser volumes. If the Strait of Hormuz is not effectively reopened soon, fertiliser imports could fall this year, according to a Rabobank projection.
Last year, Brazil broke a record in fertiliser imports, with deliveries of around 45.5 million tonnes, almost double the amount from 10 years ago.
Source: Comex
Attention is now beginning to shift toward the possibility of reduced production, although it remains too early for more ambitious projections. For the time being, Brazilian farmers can delay input purchases without significant losses, as planting of summer crops in Brazil — such as soybeans, cotton and first-crop corn — typically begins only in the last quarter of the year.
However, if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully and permanently reopened in the near term, the outlook could change, with potential impacts on planted area and crop yields.
