We think Thailand will produce 28.3m tonnes of cassava in 2020/21; up 12% year-on-year.
This comes as many Thai farmers planted cassava instead of cane last year to earn more money.
China’s increased demand for cassava chip also plays its part, as it looks for a cheaper form of animal feed.

Why is Cassava Replacing Cane?

Broadly speaking, a lot of Thai farmers are now planting cassava instead of cane in search of greater returns.

We recently joined the Thai Tapioca Trade Association (TTTA) on its annual six-day crop tour across Thailand to see how apparent this switch was.
We learnt that Thailand will produce 28.3m tonnes of cassava in 2020/21; up 12% year-on-year (YoY).

Thailand’s cane area is feeling the brunt of cassava’s increased production, having seen 20% of 2019/20’s cane area lost to competing crops.

Thai farmers are not merely motivated by the money, however.
The country suffered its worst drought in 40 years last season, which severely impacted cane yields.

Cassava is a more resilient crop in such conditions, meaning the dead and dying cane was pulled up in Q2’20 and replaced with cassava.
This causes further trouble for cane, as cassava has a 10-month growing cycle and is usually planted in the first half of the year.
The later planting means it will not be possible to plant any early cane until the cassava is harvested.

What Will Thailand Do with the Cassava?

Thailand will use approximately 20-30% its cassava domestically for in food, feed and ethanol.
5m tonnes of this will likely be exported to China as cassava chip and used as animal feed.
Last season, China only imported 2.8m tonnes of cassava chip from Thailand as it had very high corn stocks, which were instead used to meet local feed demand.

More recently, demand for cassava has increased as China’s corn prices have risen in light of its increased ethanol demand.
As these prices continue to rise, its demand for cassava will also increase.

Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD) is a growing problem in Thailand.
Originally from Cambodia, the disease has now been identified in 29 Thai provinces and can have a catastrophic effect on crops.

The disease is either spread via cassava seed stalks (which can affect yields by 80%) or by insects (which affect yields by 20%).
When it was first detected in 2018, it impacted 0.01% of production, but this year, it could impact up to 5% (1.25m tonnes).
This is something that Thai farmers will have to consider when choosing whether to plant cane or cassava next season.
It could mean farmers switch back to planting cane later this year, causing a re-bound in Thai cane production in 2020/21.

More on this to come…

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