CS Brazil: Slower Pace, but High Sugar Output

  • Weather was dry throughout the 1H of June, but mills reported a slowdown in pace.
  • Despite slowdown in operations, CS registered a record sugar output of 2.5mmt for the period.
  • Sugar mix at 47.1% slightly lower than initial estimate.

Summary Table 1H June

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Excellent Weather

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  • Apart from PR state, CS registered excellent weather across the region in the 1H of June.
  • Still, crush pace saw a slowdown with 41.7mmt of cane processed in the fortnight.
  • We believe that the mills in operation had to slow down a bit in order to cope with a high ATR and desire to max sugar mix – average daily sugar output saw only a small reduction from the previous fortnight.

Sugar Daily Output – pushing sugar production

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  • What remains a concern is the lack of rains in CS – cumulative rains since January are 11% below historical average.
  • Other than MG, all other cane producing states have reported drop in precipitation since the beginning of the year.
  • Mills are assessing the potential implications on ag. yields of cane harvested from August onwards.
  • This could have the potential to reduce CS cane availability.

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Ethanol Market

  • Hydrous sales by the mills reached 0.74bi litres in 1H June.
  • Demand has been increasing with the social isolation measures being eased in some regions.
  • The prospects for ethanol demand remain positive in the upcoming weeks.

Fortnightly Hydrous Sales – slow and steady ethanol recovery

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Ana Zancaner

Ana graduated from Insper University Sao Paulo in 2013, with a bachelor’s degree in business administration. She joined Czarnikow as an intern in 2013 and is now our senior analyst in our Sao Paulo office. At Czarnikow she is responsible mainly for analysis of the Brazilian sugar and ethanol sector but supporting other consulting requests as well.

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