Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 12th May 2025

Raw sugar update

Jul’25 was on the front foot and started the week with a push up to 18.00, reacting to strength elsewhere in the commodity sector to trade higher. The early stages saw the market then rest upon Fridays 17.90 high mark as some stabilization took place before looking to work up through 18c as buyers arrived and nudged into scale selling and see the price reach 18.09. Fridays COT report had seen an anticipated growth in the net short holding across the reporting period to stand at -55,461 lots, though recent activity will have seen some of this position covered alongside the smaller trader and algo activity. There would have likely been more cover taken this morning but with no continuation of the movement into the US morning the day traders hit the liquidation button and sent the price back to 17.78 before some stabilization occurred. With the trade flow numbers showing a surplus there has been an ongoing doubt behind any rally and while the market was able to climb back to 18.00 we did not see the morning highs challenged and this latest effort faded away long before the close. With confidence dented the market came under pressure for the call itself with traders selling the spot month aggressively to new daily lows and making settlement at 17.70 ahead of post close lows at 17.62. This will not be received well by those buying recently and leaves the market still stuck within the same broad 17/18c band which has prevailed over recent weeks.  

White sugar update

Reacting to positive influence across the Atlantic we saw Aug’25 jump through Fridays high to $505.50 on the opening, and while trading quickly calmed a narrow range established above $503.00 to maintain some of this opening gain. With news of US/China tariff softening boosting equities and commodities the market built from here and saw new highs at $507.90 later in the morning, though as with Friday the movement was not being reflected through spread and white premium values leaving the market to still feel like a passenger to others. There was no continuation of this gain and having drifted to a period the inevitable day trader liquidation arrived and sent the market tumbling to new daily lows and remove some of the earlier sheen. See-saw trading then took over with smaller traders dominating as the price moved back up through the range before tumbling again to another session low at $500.20. For a short period, the market looked to try and hold above $500, however the required support was not available and through the later stages a series of new lows were recorded as the flat price began to echo the concerning signals being sent out by the spread and arb. Aggressive late selling saw Aug’25 fall to settle down at $495.00, still $2.30 above the low recorded just moments after on the post close, and with Aug/Oct’25 ending at $4.60 and the Aug/Jul’25 valued at $104.80 focus may again switch towards the recent lows.