Raw Sugar Update

It was a far more muted market which greeted us this morning with Jul’25 starting the day at unchanged and proceeding to sit within a narrow 0.10-point band right the way through until noon. This activity did see yesterdays 18.29 high matched, but having lacked the necessary buying to push further ahead into the assortment of grower pricing resting above we instead saw an early afternoon dip which extended to 17.94 based on some light liquidation. This was followed by an equally sharp recovery to 18.21 as smaller traders dominated proceedings with the market then gradually calming down to sit in the teens where traders were able to reassess the picture. The market flitted to either side of this band with no traction being established, however the later part of the day saw then saw the lower end visited with more regularity as the apathy caused some of yesterday’s confidence to evaporate. The close saw Ju’25 nudge down a little further to settled at 18.06, representing a disappointing value in the context of yesterdays movement but not wholly unexpected when considering wider market factors.    

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Jul’25 18.22 18.29 17.94 18.06 -0.16 18.08 48,769 328,073
Oct’25 18.38 18.46 18.12 18.24 -0.17 18.24 22,286 166,591
Mar’26 18.74 18.82 18.51 18.62 -0.16 18.61 14,301 120,090
May’26 18.01 18.07 17.78 17.90 -0.12 17.90 6,354 59,000
Jul’26 17.69 17.75 17.48 17.62 -0.08 17.61 3,034 40,075
Oct’26 17.72 17.77 17.52 17.67 -0.04 17.63 1,123 33,325
Mar’27 18.06 18.11 17.86 18.02 -0.01 17.98 442 16,400
May’27 17.63 17.71 17.50 17.63            –   17.59 404 7,728
Jul’27 17.38 17.55 17.38 17.48 0.01 17.44 194 9,820
Oct’27 17.64 17.64 17.64 17.57 0.01 17.64 101 6,268
Mar’28          –              –              –   17.90 0.01 17.44 19 632
                 
Total             97,027 788,002

White Sugar Update

The session started with some buying which took Aug’25 up to $511.90 during early trading, however it lacked depth and soon the market settled down to sit within a band either side of last night’s closing value. Trading was very slow through this period and while the chart started to look more interesting with a pullback to $505.40 during the early afternoon this too was based on low volume with few resting buy orders to be found this side of the $500 mark. Another aggressive burst of selling sent Aug’25 down to $502.40, however the market was not in the mood to give back all of yesterday’s gain and soon returned to sit in the $506.00 area amidst some choppy day trading. The flat price continued to struggle for direction through the afternoon with little meaningful interest arriving from either side, action which diminished some confidence amongst yesterday’s buyers and saw the market veering towards the lower end during the final hour. Spreads and arbs were returni9ng to their recent patter with Aug/Oct’25 trading back down to $4.60 and Aug/Jul’25 sitting near to $106.00, and this sense of unease continued for the market. The closing stages saw sellers push back toward the lows and leave Aug’25 settling at $503.90 to reduce yesterday’s move and leave ethe market still caught within a range. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 510.00 511.90 502.40 503.90 -5.90 503.80 8,723 51,253
Oct’25 504.00 504.90 497.20 499.30 -4.30 498.60 4,433 17,531
Dec’25 502.60 503.10 496.30 498.70 -3.80 497.90 1,321 9,033
Mar’26 504.80 505.00 498.90 501.30 -3.40 500.50 309 7,958
May’26 499.90 500.90 497.50 499.00 -3.00 500.00 56 3,714
Aug’26 496.00 497.20 494.30 496.10 -2.70 497.20 35 2,027
Oct’26          –              –              –   493.70 -2.50 492.90 7 1,063
Dec’26          –              –              –   494.10 -2.30 493.00 5 942
Mar’27          –              –              –   496.20 -1.20 497.50            –   346
May’27          –              –              –   496.10 -1.20 483.00            –   220
Aug’27          –              –              –   496.50 -1.20 483.00            –   12
Oct’27          –              –              –   496.60 -1.20 –            –   60
Dec’27          –              –              –   495.40 -1.20 –            –                –  
Mar’28          –              –              –   494.70 -1.20 –            –                –  
Total             14,889 94,159

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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