Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 19th April 2024

July’24 opened higher, creating a gap for the intra-day charts, but though there was a flow of supportive trade/consumer pricing during the early part of the day the market was unable to surpass the 19.80 mark from the first minutes. Yesterday afternoon saw calmer trading with specs having retreated, and that pattern soon resumed to see Jul’24 holding a narrow band around 19.60 through much of the morning and seemingly awaiting a spark from somewhere. The afternoon failed to generate any additional fresh interest, and this was the trigger for traders to look to the short side once again and send prices back into the red. The exception to the was the spot month where spread buying appeared to reverse some of the recent losses, taking May/Jul’24 back out to 0.17 points my mid-afternoon. Jul’24 had meanwhile slipped down to 19.30, though with day traders short and maybe some longs liquidated there appeared no desire to push more aggressively and search out this week’s lows. The market moved quietly towards the weekend at the lower end of the range, while some MOC buying emerged to send Jul’24 out at 19.50. Tonight’s COT report will be keenly viewed to ascertain just how much the spec sector sold on the sharp decline during the reporting period, with the number potentially influencing direction/sentiment when we resume on Monday.

Attempting to build upon yesterday’s modest recovery the market saw additional buying through the early stages to trade to through $570 and on to $574.40 for Jul’24.  Activity was mixed with the price falling back swiftly when the buying eased up, and despite efforts to maintain upward momentum the later morning saw a more settled picture with consolidation taking placed in the $570.00 area. This showing would sometimes provide the basis of another push higher, but in the current environment the market requires a little more impetus and lacking the necessary support we once more saw the Aug’24 contract struggling. Today’s struggle was being realised through the spread also with yesterdays enthusiastic Aug/Oct’24 buying long forgotten with the gains erased and the spread value falling back to the $18.00 area. Aug’24 meanwhile recorded a low at $563.50 following a 3-hour slide, though with volume moderate there was no sign of any desire to push aggressively in search of Wednesdays lows. Having padded along quietly there was a final push down to $561.60 during the final hour, however some pre-weekend short covering arrived to reach settlement at $563.50. Aug/Oct’24 ended the week at $18.20 while the Aug/Jul’24 suffered a late afternoon fall to close at $133.60.