Raw Sugar Update

N5 opened under pressure at 17.44, with sellers quickly asserting control and pushing prices down to 17.32 after reaching a high of 17.52 within the first thirty minutes of trade. This initial drop reflected a continuation of the broader uncertain tone in the market, with participants still unwilling to commit in either direction. A short burst of buying interest did emerge shortly after, lifting prices back to 17.47, but this recovery proved to be short-lived. The market then resumed its bearish drift as the morning wore on, slipping gradually and with little resistance down through the lower end of the intraday range. The tone remained soft throughout the early afternoon, with heavier volumes beginning to print around 14:00. That activity coincided with the lowest point of the session at 17.07 as sellers continued to pressure the market. By mid-afternoon, the market appeared fatigued. Prices hovered just off the lows, largely boxed into a narrow range between 17.09–17.20, with very little signs of a bullish response. The overall feel of the session has been one of waning upward momentum and the re-emergence of downside pressure, as seen in the intraday structure. The Market ended up closing at 17.29 with buying pressure emerging towards the end. 

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Jul’25 17.44 17.52 17.07 17.22 -0.07 17.25 55,570 334,028
Oct’25 17.58 17.72 17.28 17.41 -0.08 17.43 30,384 177,470
Mar’26 18.04 18.15 17.71 17.86 -0.07 17.88 11,934 130,782
May’26 17.47 17.56 17.15 17.30 -0.05 17.32 5,585 62,790
Jul’26 17.24 17.33 16.94 17.10 -0.03 17.12 4,059 41,381
Oct’26 17.34 17.36 17.07 17.22 -0.02 17.24 1,349 32,324
Mar’27 17.72 17.74 17.48 17.60 -0.02 17.62 304 16,490
May’27 17.37 17.38 17.15 17.27 -0.01 17.15 130 7,928
Jul’27 17.24 17.25 17.04 17.15            –   17.04 142 9,953
Oct’27 17.30 17.36 17.30 17.27 0.01 17.30 44 6,298
Mar’28          –              –              –   17.61 0.02 17.60 1 673
                 
Total             109,502 820,117

White Sugar Update

Q5 opened the session at 486.10 and climbed steadily in early trade, reaching a session high of 490.70 by late morning. The early rally reflected supportive spillover from broader commodity sentiment and a lack of immediate selling, with light volumes allowing prices to lift with little resistance. However, as the session progressed into the afternoon, momentum faded and profit-taking emerged, gradually pressing values lower in a stepwise decline. Selling pressure intensified around 14:30, triggering a sharper move lower, dragging Q5 down to the session’s low of 480.00. The breakdown coincided with a brief uptick in volume, suggesting tactical shorts or intra-day liquidation rather than fresh directional conviction. From that point onward, price action remained subdued and narrowly rangebound around 481.00, with a modest recovery attempt failing to find follow-through. The current tone remains fragile, with the flat price finishing the day near its lows and few signs of immediate buyer support stepping in. However, the Market ended up closing at 483.6 with some bullish pressure towards the end. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 486.10 490.70 480.00 482.60 -1.00 483.90 9,217 49,391
Oct’25 482.00 486.40 476.60 478.70 -1.50 479.80 3,751 20,202
Dec’25 482.30 485.50 476.80 479.00 -1.00 480.20 1,195 10,321
Mar’26 486.10 488.50 480.40 482.80 -0.90 483.50 570 8,327
May’26 484.90 487.10 479.60 481.80 -1.00 482.50 243 3,642
Aug’26 483.40 484.90 478.00 480.00 -1.20 479.70 208 2,120
Oct’26 479.60 479.60 477.30 479.00 -1.10 477.30 48 1,090
Dec’26 479.90 479.90 478.50 480.70 -0.40 478.50 17 994
Mar’27 483.00 483.10 482.20 484.10 0.20 482.50 5 360
May’27 483.60 483.60 483.20 485.10 1.10 483.50 5 220
Aug’27 483.00 483.00 483.00 484.70 0.80 483.00 27 12
Oct’27 482.10 482.20 481.00 482.90 -0.60 481.10 20 60
Dec’27          –              –              –   481.70 -0.60            –                –  
Mar’28          –              –              –   481.00 -0.60            –                –  

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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