Raw Sugar Updates

Early trading saw the market flick either side of overnight levels without gaining any momentum, though by the middle of the morning another look lower set the market into some downside exploration which extended to 17.67, just a couple of points above yesterdays low. Some brief respite as we moved into the afternoon was not maintained and the arrival of US based specs brought a new wave of selling to the market that punched down into the underlying scale buying and set the market off towards this months 17.36 low. Whule there were pauses along the way we did see the price fall to 17.44 as the sellers drove the movement, though whenever short covering appeared it had some impact due to the lack of resting sell orders. The news that yesterdays activity had reduced OI by a third to 44,417 lots was having little impact upon market direction with values continuing a small way above the lows through the final couple of hours, and with May/Jul’25 seeing another solid volume as the spread widened back to 0.12 points during the afternoon that figure will likely reduce by another chunk overnight. The rest of the afternoon saw prices continue along at the bottom end of the range, moving slowly towards an eventual close at 17.54 which will leave underlying support under scrutiny as we move into the final day of the month.

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
May’25 17.84 17.93 17.44 17.62 -0.22 17.60 22,027 44,417
Jul’25 17.85 17.95 17.44 17.54 -0.31 17.58 67,292 345,510
Oct’25 18.04 18.08 17.61 17.69 -0.30 17.74 19,522 155,790
Mar’26 18.36 18.44 18.00 18.07 -0.29 18.11 17,930 113,912
May’26 17.64 17.71 17.36 17.42 -0.21 17.46 12,561 56,087
Jul’26 17.30 17.38 17.12 17.17 -0.15 17.21 8,118 36,255
Oct’26 17.38 17.38 17.17 17.24 -0.10 17.26 2,666 32,035
Mar’27 17.58 17.66 17.53 17.60 -0.08 17.62 934 15,731
May’27 17.21 17.21 17.14 17.21 -0.06 17.14 398 7,066
Jul’27 16.98 16.98 16.98 17.05 -0.05 16.98 241 9,017
Oct’27 17.07 17.07 17.07 17.14 -0.04 17.07 129 5,914
                 
Total             151,818 821,734

 

White Sugar Updates

The whites experienced a slow start to the session with front month activity taking place near to unchanged, though it soon became apparent that yesterday’s weakness had unsettled confidence as selling returned midway through the morning. While scale buying remained in place beneath $500 it soon started to be filled, with the spec led selling gathering pace and morning lows registered at $496.00, in the process sending the Aug/Oct’25 spread back to $7.30 and valuing Aug/Jul’25 closer towards $107.00. This was not a healthy look for the market however the picture was able to stabilize over the following hours and allow for some recovery to mid-range which particularly assisted the white premium in regaining $3-4 while No.11 remained under pressure. Marginal new lows were seen at $495.60 through the afternoon but that aside there was little to get excited about with volumes dropping away. The close also failed to generate much fresh interest, simply providing an appropriate conclusion to another weak session as Aug’25 settled at $496.80.    

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 505.30 507.70 495.60 496.80 -8.50 497.50 6,756 53,917
Oct’25 496.30 498.90 486.80 487.80 -8.50 488.30 1,996 17,142
Dec’25 493.40 495.70 484.60 485.60 -7.70 485.70 1,247 7,702
Mar’26 494.80 495.90 487.10 488.30 -6.50 488.60 761 6,480
May’26 491.00 491.90 485.00 486.10 -4.90 486.50 481 3,179
Aug’26 487.70 488.20 482.60 483.40 -4.30 484.10 245 1,671
Oct’26 486.50 486.50 481.80 482.90 -3.60 483.50 78 991
Dec’26 484.10 484.10 483.30 484.10 -3.00 483.30 4 869
Mar’27 486.50 486.50 485.80 486.30 -2.30 485.80 2 314
May’27 484.00 484.00 483.30 484.20 -1.80 483.30 2 222
Aug’27          –              –              –   482.10 -1.80 479.50            –   6
Oct’27          –              –              –   483.50 -1.80            –   60
Dec’27          –              –              –   482.30 -1.80            –                –  
Mar’28          –              –              –   481.60 -1.80            –                –  
Total             11,572 92,553

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

More from this author