Raw Sugar Update

The session began with early softness as participants absorbed the previous day’s sharp selloff, with the contract dipping gently from the open toward an intraday low of 16.81 by late morning/noon. Price action remained lethargic through much of the early trade, characterized by narrow consolidation and hesitant volume as traders waited for direction. Momentum shifted firmly in the afternoon as potential speculative buying and short covering pushed N5 above 17.00 cents/lb, peaking at 17.15 around 15:10 when the UNICA numbers came out. This uptick likely came in response to technical triggers and positioning ahead of the month-end, but it failed to gather lasting strength. Despite the brief spike, the contract rolled over in the final hour with light profit-taking pressuring values back below 17.00. The close at 17.00 leaves N5 little changed on the day, though the recovery late in the session offers some technical encouragement for bulls heading into Friday.

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Jul’25 16.93 17.15 16.81 17.00 0.10 17.04 70,910 345,191
Oct’25 17.17 17.32 17.01 17.19 0.07 17.24 40,924 189,744
Mar’26 17.63 17.78 17.48 17.67 0.08 17.70 19,277 133,948
May’26 17.16 17.29 17.02 17.19 0.08 17.22 10,410 62,844
Jul’26 17.00 17.11 16.87 17.03 0.08 17.06 6,979 44,660
Oct’26 17.12 17.26 17.04 17.18 0.07 17.21 2,292 32,960
Mar’27 17.54 17.65 17.44 17.57 0.06 17.58 1,154 16,969
May’27 17.24 17.33 17.15 17.26 0.05 17.27 661 8,197
Jul’27 17.09 17.24 17.07 17.17 0.05 17.20 487 9,960
Oct’27 17.24 17.38 17.22 17.32 0.05 17.38 260 6,247
Mar’28 17.61 17.69 17.58 17.68 0.05 17.69 53 712
                 
Total             153,407 851,432

White Sugar Update

The early trade was marked by a brief upward test toward $475/mt, likely driven by residual momentum from late Tuesday and modest short covering. However, bullish commitment faded quickly, and Q5 entered a steady decline through the morning and early afternoon. Selling pressure built as the day progressed, particularly into the midday period, with participants seemingly unimpressed by the early highs. The market found little support, retreating steadily to print a low of $468.90 though volume remained modest, suggesting more of a grind than a capitulation. By mid-afternoon UNICA numbers came out, opportunistic buying and technical repositioning lifted values back toward $474, with a bounce seen between 14:30 and 15:30. Still, the rebound lacked follow-through, and prices edged back into the $472–$473 region by late trade. Larger volume traded towards the end of the day, indicative of some bullish interest and signalling a recovery back to the $475 area with the market closing at $473.60. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 474.90 476.30 468.90 473.60 2.20 475.40 7,739 51,116
Oct’25 472.00 473.20 466.20 470.70 1.90 472.00 4,203 21,708
Dec’25 474.00 474.20 467.80 471.90 1.30 472.90 1,763 10,823
Mar’26 477.50 479.50 473.50 476.60 0.80 477.70 1,014 8,572
May’26 476.50 478.90 475.00 476.70 0.20 477.20 531 3,888
Aug’26 476.20 478.70 475.80 476.80 0.10 475.80 191 2,122
Oct’26 477.60 479.40 476.00 476.70 -0.10 476.00 54 1,098
Dec’26 481.70 481.70 478.40 479.00            –   478.40 15 1,007
Mar’27          –              –              –   482.90 0.10 482.50            –   362
May’27          –              –              –   484.50 0.10 483.70            –   220
Aug’27          –              –              –   484.10 0.10 483.30            –   41
Oct’27          –              –              –   484.10 0.20 483.30            –   80
Dec’27          –              –              –   482.90 0.20            –                 –  
Mar’28          –              –              –   482.20 0.20            –                 –  
Total             15,510 101,037

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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