Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 30th April 2025

Raw Sugar Updates

A mixed opening quickly developed into a rally as buyers showed with some size for the first time this week and began to recover some of the recent loss. Outright activity was primarily being seen for Jul’25 with specs / day traders continuing to dominate proceedings, and their buying /short covering took the value to 17.93 during the morning before easing back a little when selling started to emerge. Further efforts to drive the market higher as the US morning got underway fell just short of the morning highs and ended rather abruptly to prompt a corrective move which reversed the gains over the next couple of hours. The arrival of the early season UNICA numbers showing cane at 16.598 mmt / Sugar 0.731 mmt / Mix 44.77% / ATR 103.22 kg/t / Ethanol 0.918 mlt, a little above some survey estimates and inspiring additional selling to place the market under more significant pressure for the rest of the afternoon. With analysts dealing in degrees of surplus and uncertainty continuing as to the impact of US tariffs these numbers were sufficient for the specs to continue playing the short side and send the market as low as 17.20 before finding some small respite late in the day against profit taking. Still the market closed weakly at 17.25 and against the present picture more downside testing appears likely.

May’25 saw a small volume on its final day of trading and expired at 17.46, with May/Jul’25 values at 0.21 points. Early talk suggests that 29,170 lots (1,481,910t) will be tendered, however details are still emerging, and numbers are subject to change. Formal confirmation will follow tomorrow.

White Sugar Updates

There was some light early selling showing up which pushed prices down to explore yesterday’s lower levels initially, though it did not take long for the market to dig in and begin to climb back up through the current range. Resistance was minimal as Aug’25 climbed steadily, and it was only above $506.00 that the market ran out of steam and some position squaring took place. Another look at the highs followed early in the afternoon and the market touched at $506.90, however by now the buying was drying up and in a classic piece of range trading prices started to retrace back down through the morning range on thin activity. There was very little occurring outside of the spot position, such was the spec dominance of proceedings, and with the chart weakening this week they took the opportunity to accelerate the decline to new lows and explore the underlying support. Consumer scales were present but not in sufficient quantity to halt the slide, which enabled the short to continue pressuring the market right into the final hour. This saw Aug’25 down to a low at $492.10 ahead of another poor settlement at $492.80, though the underlying support remains in place basis the mid-April lows at $487.70, and area likely to be tested soon.