Raw Sugar Futures

Having started the day showing little change it did not take long for the market to begin an investigation of the underlying support with Jul’25 printing within a pip of the recent lows at 16.82. Additional selling arrived later in the morning and pushed the market through to 16.79 however the moves were not garnering any fund involvement to drive the price further and so we returned to consolidate the 16.80’s through into the early afternoon. The smaller traders remained determined to test lower and their efforts were rewarded with another push downward during the afternoon that extended the loss to 16.66 though with the larger funds still not engaging the market then proceeded to reverse and position covering sent the price to 16.92 a short time later. The rally paused ahead of the close however the final stages saw fresh buying take the spot to 16.96 and ensure a higher closing level at 16.90 in the process. Jul/Oct’25 meanwhile ended the day at -0.25 points having seen steady volume through the day as interest grows ahead of the index roll getting underway later this week. Overall, the close provides nothing conclusive for the bulls with their efforts not yet sufficient to reverse the ongoing negative chart picture, though the lack of any noteworthy fund aggression today may provide them some encouragement .

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Jul’25 16.92 16.97 16.66 16.90 0.02 16.95 68,271 345,170
Oct’25 17.15 17.21 16.91 17.15 0.06 17.19 47,855 207,242
Mar’26 17.60 17.65 17.39 17.60 0.05 17.65 26,091 137,008
May’26 17.14 17.20 16.97 17.14 0.05 17.15 12,198 62,224
Jul’26 16.98 17.06 16.85 17.00 0.05 16.98 10,645 48,394
Oct’26 17.08 17.18 17.01 17.12 0.02 17.10 2,435 33,284
Mar’27 17.46 17.54 17.40 17.48            –   17.45 1,622 17,352
May’27 17.13 17.22 17.10 17.14 -0.01 17.13 658 8,213
Jul’27 17.01 17.11 17.00 17.02 -0.02 17.01 466 9,812
Oct’27 17.14 17.24 17.14 17.15 -0.01 17.17 223 6,248
Mar’28 17.49 17.59 17.49 17.49 -0.02 17.52 67 798
                 
Total             170,531 875,745

White Sugar Futures 

There was no definitive interest from either side as we opened and following a brief period holding ahead of the recent $468.90 low Aug’25 managed a move back to the low $470’s. For several hours, the market proceeded to stagnate with trading continuing either side of $470.00 into the afternoon, though the failure to pull very far away from the lows was increasingly raising questions as to whether a meaningful rally is possible., Midway through the afternoon we had some clarification of this with another nudge lower seeing $468.90 broken and more scale buying filled in as a fresh 4-month low was recorded at $467.40 though that proved to be the extent of the losses before prices once more tried to dig in and hold. A short covering move led to a sharp rally to a daily high $473.40 later in the afternoon, another move which failed to generate anything other than short term gains before the market again calmed. It did have some influence upon the white premium values where Aug/Jul’25 picked back up to $100.00 and Oct/Oct’25 to $91.00, bit that aside there was limited outright interest. Heading towards the close Aug’25 launched upward for a final time to register a session high at $475.60 and ensure that a positive close would be registered. This helped to widen the Aug/Oct’25 spread to $4.50 and Aug/Jul’25 to $101.50 with an Aug’25 closing value of $473.70 providing some hope for the longs despite the technical picture still having an overall negative leaning. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 470.90 475.60 467.40 473.70 2.80 475.50 8,050 50,563
Oct’25 468.30 471.20 464.00 469.20 0.90 471.20 4,616 24,114
Dec’25 470.20 472.90 466.70 471.00 0.90 472.90 1,207 11,190
Mar’26 475.60 478.60 473.30 477.20 1.60 478.40 692 8,935
May’26 476.70 479.50 475.00 478.20 1.80 479.40 185 4,252
Aug’26 477.20 479.30 475.60 477.90 1.30 479.00 104 2,246
Oct’26 476.40 476.40 476.00 477.90 1.50 476.00 23 1,139
Dec’26 478.40 478.40 478.40 480.10 1.50 478.40 12 1,027
Mar’27          –              –              –   483.60 1.50 482.50            –   362
May’27          –              –              –   485.30 1.50 483.70            –   220
Aug’27          –              –              –   485.20 1.50 483.30            –   41
Oct’27          –              –              –   485.40 1.50 483.30            –   80
Dec’27          –              –              –   484.20 1.50            –                –  
Mar’28          –              –              –   483.50 1.50            –                –  
Total             14,889 104,169

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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