Raw Sugar Updates

Having mounted a solid recovery during yesterdays shortened session the market was trading with a little more freedom and saw an unchanged opening on low volume with specs showing less interest in proceedings. The calm opening period was broken by a sharp rally to 17.5 on only around 1.500 lots, and that the market then stalled was more a reflection of the unwillingness of most specs/funds to close out shorts at the present time as selling still lacks. The next few hours proved to be quiet until the calm was broken by a burst of selling / day trader liquidation that sent the price tumbling back through the range to a session low 17.39. Still last week’s low mark remained some distance away and the lack of resting orders allowed the market to move freely within the range through the afternoon without at any stage appearing likely to break out. Moderate activity for Jul/Oct’25 and Oct’25/March’26 prevented volumes from presenting too lowly though both traded within tight bands as an otherwise quiet day saw the spot valued to the centre of its range approaching the close. Some late selling arrived to slam Jul’25 back to 17.40 on the call and register a marginally lower settlement at 17.44, ending a neutral day which goes a small way towards cementing yesterday’s recovery.

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Jul’25 17.47 17.65 17.39 17.44 -0.03 17.41 37,566 349,772
Oct’25 17.62 17.79 17.54 17.58 -0.04 17.56 21,780 164,175
Mar’26 17.96 18.16 17.94 17.96 -0.03 17.95 15,244 119,143
May’26 17.25 17.46 17.24 17.28            –   17.27 6,387 58,270
Jul’26 16.99 17.16 16.95 17.00 0.01 16.99 3,883 38,397
Oct’26 17.04 17.23 17.04 17.06 0.01 17.05 1,793 32,053
Mar’27 17.46 17.59 17.45 17.42 0.01 17.45 649 16,144
May’27 17.10 17.23 17.10 17.07 0.02 17.23 488 7,388
Jul’27 16.97 17.10 16.97 16.95 0.02 17.06 386 9,619
Oct’27 17.08 17.20 17.08 17.07 0.02 17.17 212 6,173
Mar’28          –              –              –   17.42 0.02 17.44 12 583
                 
Total             88,400 801,717

 

White Sugar Updates

Returning from the holiday weekend there had been a change of direction for No.11, and this was reflected in a higher opening which saw the market gap on the intra-day charts and reach $498.90 (+$9.20) for Aug’25. Foe a period the value fell back to the mid $490’s however it was soon looking to build again with the gains releasing some of the recent shackles and enabling the price to work above $500 and register a mid-morning high at $502.00. Though these represented solid gains it still left the Aug/Julk’25 white premium lagging against Fridays value wit trades being seen either side of $110.00, something which endured as the flat price retreated into the range ahead of the Americas morning. There was another dip during the early afternoon which sent the market quickly back to $492.30 but it was soon rebuffed to leave the market once more holding onto a solid gain within the range. Spread volume was paltry as Aug/Oct’25 moved a touch lower, with only the spot Aug’25 contract showing any semblance of moderate activity as smaller traders and specs dominated. MOC selling appeared to leave Aug’25 closing towards the lower end of its range at $493.80 and still within proximity of the underlying double bottom support at $488.10/$487.70.

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Aug’25 495.30 502.00 492.30 493.80 4.10 492.80 7,779 54,719
Oct’25 483.60 491.00 483.20 484.40 5.10 483.40 2,235 17,321
Dec’25 480.70 487.60 480.60 482.50 5.40 481.70 1,550 8,209
Mar’26 486.00 490.20 484.10 485.80 5.50 485.10 625 7,258
May’26 486.10 489.40 484.10 484.70 4.80 484.10 197 3,613
Aug’26 483.80 488.20 483.60 483.20 4.10 483.60 133 1,971
Oct’26 482.00 482.00 482.00 482.10 3.50 482.00 10 1,037
Dec’26 483.80 483.80 483.80 483.80 3.20 483.80 7 889
Mar’27          –              –              –   486.20 2.00 483.00 1 327
May’27          –              –              –   486.20 2.00 483.00            –   221
Aug’27          –              –              –   486.60 2.00 483.00            –   12
Oct’27          –              –              –   486.70 2.00            –   60
Dec’27          –              –              –   485.50 2.00            –                –  
Mar’28          –              –              –   484.80 2.00            –                –  
Total             12,537 95,637

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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