Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 7th May 2025

Raw Sugar Updates

The market wobbled on the opening and the drop gathered some pace and sent Jul’25 down to 17.21 as specs once again started to play from the short side. While there was some reduction of the losses across the next hour it was apparent that this week’s mini rally had been rejected as the specs returned to send the price back to 17.10 before the morning completed, with newswire articles as to higher Indian production and the balance sheet surplus driving the directional play. There was no reaction from the US based hedge fund as we moved into the afternoon and so the market simply continued to meander sideways on low volume, though more tellingly for sentiment there was also no sign of the market rallying away from the lows. It took until the final two hours for prices to break new daily ground with a nudge down to 17.06, and while that proved to be the extent of the movement it was sufficient to confirm that the downside is back in focus. Closing activity was all conducted within existing parameters and resulted in a Jul’25 settlement price of 17.13, concluding a day which has returned the market back to its negative pattern with last Friday’s 16.97 low back in view.   

White Sugar Updates

There was a fall in prices when we opened as the market reacted to lower No.11 values, and having returned to the downward trend it did not take long for the underlying $488.10/$487.70 support to come under investigation. Through the first couple of hours this area held firm with lows made at $488.40 after finding some trade/consumer support, but it was not to survive the morning as a more aggressive push lower (1,200 lots) sent Aug’25 quickly into the mid $480’s. This development left the market very much on the backfoot and through the middle of the day there was little change to the price with a sideways pattern developing to establish the technical weakness. Lows were registered at $484.00 along the way, and while the uniformity of the fall at the higher end of the board left spreads only marginally lower, there was a weakening of all white premium values that saw Aug/Jul’25 drop back to $107.00. Volume dropped through the afternoon with efforts to pull values away from the lows ending in the vicinity of $488.00, meaning that the technical weakness was cemented through a negative close. This saw Aug’25 settle at $485.40 and leaves the market appearing susceptible to additional downside pressure.