Insight Focus
US ethanol is steady, but exports have weakened across key markets. Exports fell below 200 million gallons, with declines in Canada and the EU outweighing gains to South Korea. The corn outlook remains steady with a slight ethanol revision, while inventories tightened marginally and India pushed ahead with higher ethanol blending.
US Ethanol Steady, But Exports Fall
Official data released in recent days by the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) in its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) indicated that ethanol production, supplies and markets were mostly unchanged from the prior month’s report, with one exception. Ethanol exports fell below 200 million gallons for the first time in six months.
According to the diligent statisticians and analysts at the WAOB, US ethanol exports totalled 171.6 million gallons in April, amid broadly weaker shipments across several key markets.
Source: RFA
Canada reversed its March surge, declining 14% to 64.8 million gallons, while maintaining its position as the leading destination for denatured fuel ethanol. Exports to the EU fell 42% to a nine-month low of 34.1 million gallons, though strong demand from the Netherlands continued to underpin the market for undenatured ethanol.
Shipments to South Korea jumped 57% to a four-year high of 16.4 million gallons, while imports by the Philippines retreated 27% to 11.1 million gallons. Collectively, those four markets accounted for roughly three-quarters of all US ethanol exports in April.
Source: RFA
Notably, exports to Brazil dropped to essentially zero as the country emerged from its inter-harvest period, and India was also absent from the market for US ethanol. Year-to-date US ethanol exports reached 811.3 million gallons, running 13% ahead of the same period last year.
Corn Outlook Steady as Ethanol Use Adjusted
The current 2026–2027 corn outlook was virtually unchanged from the May report. Fractionally higher beginning and ending stocks for 2026–2027 reflect mostly offsetting trade and domestic use changes for 2025–2026, with adjustments to imports, corn used for ethanol, and exports based on data to date.
Approximately 5.6 billion bushels of corn are expected to go to corn ethanol production for 2026–27, unchanged from the May WASDE. The USDA updated its estimate for 2025–2026 corn use in ethanol to 5.575 billion bushels, down from the 5.6 billion estimate made in May. Corn use for ethanol production was 5.436 billion bushels for 2024–2025.
Source: USDA
Stocks Tighten on Recent Draws
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US ethanol inventory has tightened over the last two EIA reporting weeks, but despite sinking to the lowest volume on hand since the start of the year, it entered June at a seasonally comfortable level.
Nationwide ethanol inventories shed 154,000 net barrels, leaving 24.452 million barrels in storage by mid-June, reflecting just a 0.63% draw, while supply also retreated by 516,000 barrels, or almost 2.1%, over the previous two reporting weeks.
Source: EIA
The ethanol supply, which fell to a 22-week low, still appeared healthy compared to recent years, up more than 3% year on year. Inventories for the week also indicated a strong increase compared to the prior five-year average for early June, standing more than 8.4% above the average, according to EIA figures.
India Ramps up Ethanol Blending
The Times of India reported that the government has waived excise duty on E22, E25, E27, and E30 fuel blends to make way for higher blends, as it seeks to build 500 ethanol stations across the country by year’s end.
The push beyond E20 has been driven by geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which also sparked the recent rollout of E85. Even with higher blends on the way, E20 will still remain available at the pump.
