• Mexico’s rainfall was poor during the key growing month of July.
• If this continues, the cane could develop badly, as it did last year.
• This would put Mexico’s supply and the potential for US exports under pressure.

Mexico’s Rainfall is Below Average During Key Period

• Mexico’s rainfall was 30% below average in July.
• This is concerning because rainfall in the summer months is critical for Mexico’s cane growth.
• If rainfall was below average in August too, this is bad news for the cane crop as it is still recovering from the dry 2019/20 season.

• Up until July, Mexico’s rainfall aligned with the historic average, but about 55% of Mexico’s annual rainfall comes between July and September.
• If Mexico’s rainfall does not improve, we will see another disappointing crop from Mexico.
• However, if the data for August is in line with historical norms, the crop will recover.

• Mexico’s current sugar production forecast for 2020/21 is 6.1m tonnes, up from 5.3m tonnes last season.
• However, without a good amount of rain in the next few months, this forecast won’t materialise.

Other Opinions You May Be Interested In…

• Mexico 2019/20 Overview: The Good, The Bad, and The Drought
• The Mexican Cane Crop is Finishing; Are Imports Starting?