Analyst Insights

• We now think the world will produce 174.6m tonnes of sugar in 2021/22.
• With consumption set to total 174.1m tonnes, there should be a small surplus of 500k tonnes next season.
• Our consumption estimate has fallen 200k tonnes as countries across Asia remain in strict lockdown due to COVID. 

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• We have all the Sugar, Ethanol, Grains, Dairy and PET news you need on the Czapp News Feed.
• The Czapp News Feed uses Artificial Intelligence to filter out only the relevant stories, so you don’t have to!
• Here are the top articles from past week.

• With the sharp crop failure, 21/22 will have the lowest ethanol production in the last 3 years.
• The result is tight carryover stock, which will support high prices.
• However, the risk of filling and reducing the gasoline blend remains latent

• In this week’s Ask the Analyst, we share are thoughts on why the sugar market climbed to 20c. 
• We also explore that Brazil’s frosts have played. 
• If you’d like us to answer one of your questions in next week’s edition, please email WLangston@czarnikow.com.  

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• Pakistan’s sugar production could hit a five-year high in 2021/22.
• Farmers have planted more cane with record returns up for grabs.
• Pakistan’s sugar exports could reach their highest level in three years.

• Maharashtrian sugar prices have climbed 3.5% to 32.6 INR/kg.
• The prices where exports become workable have increased to 19.25 c/lb for raw sugar and 485 USD/mt for white sugar.
• If the minimum sales price is increased to 34 INR/kg, exports will only be viable above 20 c/lb and 503 USD/mt respectively.

• Chinese refiners and traders imported a record 5.27m tonnes of sugar in 2020.
• The mills have therefore struggled to make sales this season.
• Renewed COVID restrictions also mean summer consumption may be lower than usual.

• The freight market usually quietens down in August, but not this year!
• A new wave of COVID cases in China is pushing freight higher.
• Port congestion is building, and freight rates are on for another record month. 

• Thai cane farmers will enjoy record earnings next season. 
• However, it could cost them more than ever to produce cane (11,000 THB/rai).
• Cassava should also slightly pay more than cane, which may impact our production estimate.

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