Analyst Insights

• Egypt has extended its ban on sugar imports for a further three months.
• This gives local companies further opportunity to clear stocks.
• The Government estimates sugar stocks at 1.4m tonnes, but we think this is too high and stocks could be as low as 895k tonnes. 

• This Opinion is brought to you by BIMCO, the largest international shipping association representing shipowners.
• Its membership controls around 65% of the world’s tonnage and it has members in more than 120 countries, including managers, brokers and agents.
• We’ll be sharing more of BIMCO’s analysis on global shipping, including macroeconomics, dry bulk, tanker and container going forward.

• This is the third piece of a larger series discussing the aluminium global supply chain and how its pricing system works. 
• We’ll mostly be looking at aluminium production for packaging and foils, but we’ll also consider some issues that impact this market; recycling, price fluctuations, as well as changing consumer tastes and preferences.
• The series is brought to you by Mark Oulton, former Manager and Trader at Cargill (18 years) and Global Research Manager at SGS (11 years).

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• President Muhammadu Buhari has instructed Nigeria’s central bank to stop providing foreign exchange for the imports of food and fertilizer in an attempt to boost local farming production and conserve US dollars.
• Buhari said that food importers should obtain foreign exchange independently of the central bank.
• Nigeria is struggling to cope with a severe shortage of dollars and a widening trade deficit after oil demand and prices dropped due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

• India’s monsoon rainfall has continued at a strong pace in the key cane states.
• Rainfall remains above average in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. 
• With the monsoon due to end in a matter of weeks, India is still on to produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar next season.

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• The US could have its largest-ever crop next season, totalling 8.45m metric tonnes.
• This means Mexico’s import quota could reduce to 888k short tons (807k metric tonnes).
• This would be Mexico’s smallest export flow to the USA since the 2009/10 season.

• The net spec position in raw sugar fell last week for the first time since the start of July, dropping 32k lots from 190k to 158k.
• This drop in net position was driven by the cutting of long positions, rather than the opening of new shorts – with the gross spec short, interestingly, also reducing slightly.
• This selling was bought by commercials who were happy to buy as the price weakened below 12c.

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• Indian mills and refiners have exported 5.6m tonnes of sugar out of a 6m tonne export quota this season.
• Mills exported 148k tonnes in August, down from July’s 321k tonne exports.
• Everyone is now waiting for next season’s quota and export subsidy to be announced.