• India’s monsoon rainfall has continued at a strong pace in the key cane states.
  • Rainfall remains above average in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
  • With the monsoon due to end in a matter of weeks, India is still on to produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar next season.

Heavy Rains Show Little Sign of Relenting

  • Heavy rains have graced India throughout this monsoon season.
  • Maharashtra and Karnataka have both had more rain than usual (13% and 24% above average respectively).
    • These regions will produce 15m tonnes of sugar in total.
  • Tamil Nadu has had 42% more rain than usual and should produce 780k tonnes of sugar.
  • Uttar Pradesh has had 18% less rain than usual, but its perennial rivers supply cane fields with irrigation all year round, meaning the monsoon rainfall is not the main factor sustaining cane growth.
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India’s Reservoir Levels

  • Maharashtra’s reservoirs are still at their highest level in seven years.
  • Heavy monsoon rainfall in Karnataka means its reservoirs should be 85% full as of the middle of September.
  • This is favourable for agricultural and sucrose yields.
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What Does This Mean for Indian Sugar Production in 2020/21?

  • Weather conditions and water availability have been perfect for cane growth so far in 2020.
  • We therefore think India will produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar in 2020/21.
  • This is a 6m tonne increase year-on-year (YoY) and just 500k tonnes shy of the record.
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