• India’s monsoon rainfall has continued at a strong pace in the key cane states.
  • Rainfall remains above average in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
  • With the monsoon due to end in a matter of weeks, India is still on to produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar next season.

Heavy Rains Show Little Sign of Relenting

  • Heavy rains have graced India throughout this monsoon season.
  • Maharashtra and Karnataka have both had more rain than usual (13% and 24% above average respectively).
    • These regions will produce 15m tonnes of sugar in total.
  • Tamil Nadu has had 42% more rain than usual and should produce 780k tonnes of sugar.
  • Uttar Pradesh has had 18% less rain than usual, but its perennial rivers supply cane fields with irrigation all year round, meaning the monsoon rainfall is not the main factor sustaining cane growth.

India’s Reservoir Levels

  • Maharashtra’s reservoirs are still at their highest level in seven years.
  • Heavy monsoon rainfall in Karnataka means its reservoirs should be 85% full as of the middle of September.
  • This is favourable for agricultural and sucrose yields.

What Does This Mean for Indian Sugar Production in 2020/21?

  • Weather conditions and water availability have been perfect for cane growth so far in 2020.
  • We therefore think India will produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar in 2020/21.
  • This is a 6m tonne increase year-on-year (YoY) and just 500k tonnes shy of the record.


Other Opinions You Might Be Interested In…