• The US could have its largest-ever crop next season, totalling 8.45m metric tonnes.
• This means Mexico’s import quota could reduce to 888k short tons (807k metric tonnes).
• This would be Mexico’s smallest export flow to the USA since the 2009/10 season.

The September WASDE Release

• In 2019, frost impacted cane and beet development and meant that US sugar production was very poor this year.
• However, the weather has been mostly good for both crops so far this season meaning the USDA expects a 1.3m short ton rebound.

• Nevertheless, record sugar production was also forecasted this time last season.
• We will therefore closely monitor the beet harvest and any potential hazards.
• You can track domestic production and harvesting yourself in the Production – Harvest Speed section of this Interactive Dashboard.

What Does This Mean for Mexico’s Quota?

• A larger domestic crop reduces the US’ need for imports.
• With this, the Mexican import quota will reduce.
• The USDA can regulate Mexico’s access to ensure stocks remain at the desired 13.5% stock-to-use ratio. 
• This means Mexico will go from having a quota it’s unable to fill, to having the smallest one it’s had for a decade.

• Mexico’s crop should bounce back this season, meaning the reduced quota could put further pressure on the domestic market and world market exports. 

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