Sugar Futures and Market Data: 15th April 2024

Insight Focus

• Both No.11 and No.5 sugar futures have weakened over the past week.
• Speculators could be behind this, opening a number of short positions.
• The K/K white premium has strengthened.

New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures

The No.11 raw sugar futures have traded lower in the past week, growing from 21.5c/Ib at the start of the week to 20.4c/Ib by Friday’s close. 

Speculators could be behind this movement. They recently opened over 17k lot of short position, reducing the net spec position down to 33k lots.

With the market moving lower, consumers have added over 12k lots of new hedges in the past week, capitalising on the downwards movement. Producers on the other hand have closed 9.3k lots of recently opened hedges.

The No.11 futures curve has declined in the past week but remains flat in 2024 and then gently backwardated thereafter. 

London No.5 Refined Sugar Futures

Following a similar trajectory to the No.11, the No.5 refined sugar futures contract has also weakened, trading at USD 629.10/mt by Friday’s close. 

Speculators have again continued to go long, adding 4.3k lots of new positions, pushing the net spec position back up to 27.4k lots. This is the highest the net spec position has been for refined sugar since November 2023. 

The refined sugar futures curve has flattened in the past week, with the curve remaining in backwardation through to Oct’25. 

White Premium (Arbitrage)

The K/K White premium has strengthened over the past week, trading at 178.3USD/mt – the highest level in over 4 years. 

Many re-exports refiners need around 105-115USD/mt above the No.11 to profitably produce refined sugar. The current white premium is well above this level, which means we should theoretically see a pick up in demand soon.

For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below. 

No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix 

No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix

White Premium Appendix