• We think Thailand will produce 7.1m tonnes of sugar in 2021.
• This comes as many farmers switched from planting cane to cassava, in search of greater returns.
• This means sugar production will be the lowest in more than a decade.

Poorest Thai Sugar Production and Raws Availability in Over a Decade

• Many Thai farmers have stopped planting cane to plant more profitable crops, such as cassava.
• Poor weather conditions for cane development also motivated the switch.

• The widespread switch means Thailand will produce just 7.1m tonnes of sugar in 2021, less than half what was made two seasons ago.

• With this, we think Thailand will have just 3.5m tonnes of raw and white sugar available to export, down 2.1m tonnes year-on-year.

• 2.7m tonnes of this will be white sugar, up 200k tonnes year-on-year.
• This is because we think mills will remelt 2.9m tonnes of raw sugar into refined in 2021, compared to 2.6m tonnes 2020.
• However, this means raw sugar export availability will plunge to levels not seen in the last 15 years.

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