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Analyst Insights Jolyon Hobby

116 Insights

Jolyon Hobby

Brought up on a mixed arable and dairy farm in Wiltshire I was destined to work in the agriculture and associated industries.
I studied a BSc Hons in Agriculture and Land Management.
I was a farmer for 3 years post degree, before turning my attention to a fascination in markets and began a career in the UK grain trade.
Following 20 years of trading with 13 years running my own trading business, with an associated transport company, I left the physical grain trade.
Over the last 8 years I have pursued interests in the agri-food supply chain, focusing on the impact of commodities and their price volatility together with transport logistics on the food chain.
I currently write about the World wheat markets as well as providing support to businesses from farm to retailer. Assisting in their quest to manage margin impacted by commodity volatility and transport logistics.

Wheat and Corn Prices; Is There a Common Ground?

  • Understanding the basics of corn and wheat can give insight into individual commodity value.
  • Examining the price drivers that influence both can help with proactive business decisions.
  • If two commodities appear to have similar uses, can one go up while the other goes down?

Jolyon Hobby

3 years ago

5 min read

Wheat Prices vs. Other Commodities

  • Wheat prices, like other commodities, are driven by the basics of supply and demand.
  • So, why in some seasons do stocks increase more than demand, but the wheat price doesn’t appear lower?
  • An understanding of wheat and wider commodity markets can help answer this.

Jolyon Hobby

3 years ago

3 min read

Wheat: How Crop Rotation Drives Price Spreads

  • Crop rotation is where farmers change what they plant each season to enhance their soil structure and reduce the risk of soil-borne diseases.
  • Farmers may leave their planting decision to the last moment, so they truly know what the most profitable option is.
  • We discuss the farmers’ decision and the subsequent price movements in more detail here, simplifying the often-complicated discussion of price spreads.

Jolyon Hobby

3 years ago

2 min read

How the Wheat Market Really Works

  • At first glance, the global wheat futures markets can be quite confusing.
  • Within one market, there are premiums between some months, and discounts between others. Why does one wheat futures market go up while another is going down?
  • Understanding why things are the way they are is paramount to anyone involved, or starting out, in wheat.

Jolyon Hobby

3 years ago

3 min read

Wheat at Seven-Year High with Russian Export Tax

  • China’s wheat demand remains high as it attempts to rebuild its national pig herd, which was decimated by African Swine Fever.
  • Meanwhile, Russia has upped its wheat export tax from 25 to 50 EUR/mt, which will be in place between the 15th March and 30th June.
  • Both these factors have fuelled the rise we’ve seen in the wheat markets over recent months.

Jolyon Hobby

3 years ago

3 min read

Hard or Soft: How Well Do You Know Your Wheat?

  • Here, we look back through what we’ve learnt about wheat so far.
  • We discuss its different types and uses, and how contextual factors can manipulate where these are grown and what they are used for.
  • We also reveal who the world’s largest producers, consumers, importers and exporters were last season.

Jolyon Hobby

3 years ago

6 min read

How This Season’s Wheat Harvests Could Shake Global Trade

  • December is a good time to look at the world’s wheat harvests and figure out what they mean for global trade.
  • With EU production down 18.7m tonnes year-on-year, there’s an opportunity for Russia to pinch North African demand after a healthy crop; and with Australia’s production up 100%, Asian buyers should continue to see increased competition in 2020/21.
  • The need for change in trade, due to the variations in harvests across the globe will have interesting impacts on market prices.

Jolyon Hobby

3 years ago

4 min read

Wheat Farming: Finding the Right Destination at the Best Price

  • Last week, we discussed the basic beginnings of a wheat crops’ journey to the final consumer.
  • We learnt that planning, growing, cleaning, drying and storing are not the only tasks a wheat farmer faces.
  • Here, we consider how the wheat farmers’ role has evolved over time, now paying closer attention to the global markets and the wider supply chain.

Jolyon Hobby

3 years ago

2 min read

Wheat Production: Crucial Points to Consider

  • We know that farmers produce wheat, and to really understand how the wheat market works, we must look at the before and after.
  • Cleaning, drying, and storing wheat correctly are of paramount importance.
  • Planning and marketing for the onward chain are crucial to profitability.

Jolyon Hobby

3 years ago

3 min read

2020: Coronavirus and the Future of Global Wheat Trade

  • In our last article, we looked at the record global wheat stocks, coupled with the price rise seen in recent months. 
  • We discussed why these have unexpectedly risen in tandem.
  • Here, we consider the longer-term trends, and the way countries view their wheat stocks in light of this extraordinary year with COVID-19 at the forefront?

Jolyon Hobby

3 years ago

3 min read