• The futures range has been narrowng in recent months (see chart below). 
  • A breakout either way from this trend will provide momentum for the world market. 
  • With the worlds surplus concentrated and currently stored in India the direction of the market greatly depends on Indian exports. 
  • Indian production has started very strongly and stocks are building, on top of this farmers are not being paid for their cane. 
  • If the government enhances export incentives ahead of May’s election the market could trade significantly lower. 
  • If this doesn’t occur then the sugar market is much more balanced in the short and medium term.