- The Sudanese President has been overthrown; borders are shut until further notice.
- Whites offtake from Sudan, normally reliable, could be disrupted in the short term.
- This could make receiving the upcoming May expiry even more unattractive.
Potential Issues with Offtake
- After 29 years in power, the Sudanese President has been toppled by a military coup.
- This follows months of protests, partly over the rising cost of food.
- The defence minister has announced a three-month state of emergency while border crossings have been shut until further notice.
- We expect the military to understand the need to continue food imports.
- However, we estimate that Sudan can continue through until July without needing to import sugar.
- This could pose a problem for short term sugar offtake; Sudan was the world’s second largest white sugar importer in 2018
Worldwide White Sugar Offtake in 2018
- Sudan has been a main offtaker of sugar from India and Thailand recently, importing 93% its 2018 tonnage from these two origins.
- This consistency has meant it’s been a reliable home for refined sugar received from recent No.5 expiries.
Sudanese Monthly Whites Offtake
- In the upcoming May expiry we think the majority of availability is in India and Thailand.
- Sudan’s coup could therefore make receiving the May whites expiry unfavourable.
- This reinforces our opinion that the K/Q’19 needs to weaken to around a USD15/mt discount so that supply can be rolled.
