Main points
- By the end of June, we had the biggest drop in productivity since 2011, a 12% drop yoy.
- On the other hand, the drought has helped to increase the ATR, 141.81kg/tc in this fortnight.
- The parity at pumps (76%) encourages strong sales of anhydrous.
Crop 2021/22 – 2H June
Strong Crushing and Sugar Concentration
- With dry weather, we had good operational efficiency in the fields. In 2H June, 45 mmt of cane were processed – 2 mm greater than the 20/21 fortnight.
- However, the volume of cane crushed since the beginning of the harvest remains below 2020/21, -8.45%, 210.93 mmt vs. 230.4mmt.
- Preliminary data from UNICA indicates a drop in agricultural productivity this month to 80 ton/ha.
- Until June, the TCH presents a cumulative loss of almost 12% yoy – worst reduction since 2011.
- The dry weather negatively affects agricultural productivity, but it is advantageous for the quality of the plant.
- In this fortnight, the sugar concentration in the plant was strong and in line with our estimates – 141.8 kg/tc
- The frost reports started on 06/30 so we believe that the main impacts of the event should only be reflected in the next fortnight.
Ethanol Market
- The production of anhydrous ethanol continues to grow – in this fortnight, 3.42 billion liters were produced
- The average parity in São Paulo is 76% – a level at which hydrous ethanol is no longer considered attractive for the driver
- As a result, the demand for anhydrous (which is blended with gasoline) remains high compared to last year.
- biofuel sales registered an increase of 27.86% with 849.93 mml