加工糖供应压力| China Weekly 11th June 2019

市场热点 & 观点

短期内国际原糖价格可能重回价格区间上部,但我们认为中期内价格还是弱势运行。价格反弹原因主要是因为印度季风的延迟,中国许可发放后的原糖采购,以及美国洪水灾害对大宗商品的影响。而国际白糖方面我们仍然维持看空。 

国内郑糖价格在过去两周持续回弹,利多因素包括云南干旱,虫害以及五月产销数的偏好。但是,随着加工糖开始集中供应市场,放储预期,以及走私糖的不确定性,国内食糖价格仍然面临压力。重点需关注国内糖企业资金压力情况。 短期内仍未能看到价格上行动力。 

   

郑糖 & 纽约原糖价格

产销数据更新  

  • 榨季全国食糖产量为1076万吨,比去年同期高45.4万吨。 
  • 截至5月底累计销量为667万吨,比去年同期高92.1万吨。但5月当月销量同比少11.3万吨。 
  • 全国食糖库存截至5月底为410万吨,比去年同期少47万吨,其中62%是广西糖。 

全国食糖糖厂库存

远期合约价格  

  • 郑糖20205月合约在过去两周回弹超过4.4%,目前价格为4922/吨。 
  • 此前在中国不会延长保障关税期限的消息公布后,我们认为5月合约价格在悲观情绪下超卖了。 
  • 目前的5月合约价格仍然比广西食糖生产成本低约12% 

  

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Rosa Li

Rosa graduated from Jinan University in 2012 with a bachelor’s degree in Marketing. Rosa joined Czarnikow in 2014 and has been an analyst for 7 years in our Guangzhou office managing the data capture, analysis and visualisation within the Chinese sugar markets utilising her skills in SQL, Python and VBA while also providing content for our platform Czapp. Rosa is also responsible for the localization of Czapp in China – Czapp WeChat, she also assists with the commercial marketing in China and works towards strategy with the trading team.

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