According to India’s Meteorological Department, India’s cumulative rainfall between June and August this year was down 9% from the Long Period Average (LPA), which runs from 1961-2010.
However, this doesn’t necessarily mean India’s sugar production will dip below our current estimate of 29.8m tonnes (after its 3.4m tonne ethanol diversion).
The monthly rainfall in India’s key cane producing states has been above average in every month this year, aside from August.
Thanks to this, reservoir levels in both Maharashtra and Karnataka are up from the five-year average; these are key water sources for India’s cane farmers.
The Ganges River, which feeds Uttar Pradesh’s irrigation systems, is also at a healthy level. The region’s cumulative rainfall is down 4mm year-on-year at this point, but so far this month, it’s had 47mm of rain, up 39% from September 2020’s total volume.
The farmers in India’s key cane regions should therefore have plenty of water to avoid further crop losses.
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