Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 14th March 2024

There was a positive feel about the market during the first hour as spec buyers joined alongside light consumer interest to push May’24 back up through 22c and on to a new 2-week high at 22.23. They would have hoped for some continuation buying to further build the technical picture, however with none forthcoming we instead saw prices drop on liquidation and return to unchanged levels. Volumes were quiet as the market tracked along sideways for several hours, though moving through the early afternoon a small upward bias began to develop with day traders once more looking to the upside in the hope that new highs may generate more interest. Their efforts proved fruitless with the May’24 topping out 3-points shy of the morning highs at 22.20, and such is the fragile nature that it was not long before the price retreated towards 22c. The slow conditions were enlivened during the last hour as liquidation came to the fore, and many day traders will likely have endured some pain as the price plunged quickly to 21.66. Spreads also weakened on the drop with May/Jul’24 back down to 0.24 points from a high at 0.35 points, and though some late buying meant a May’24 settlement off the low at 21.77 the performance was uninspiring and suggests rangebound conditions will maintain with the market lacking the necessary news/spark to mount a breakout.      

 The market looked to build upon yesterday’s resilience with more buying flowing in during the early part of the session, though having stalled just shy of the recent highs the market dipped back as day traders cleaned out long positions. The fall was by no means critical and May’24 remained above last night’s closing value throughout an otherwise quiet morning, the shadow of yesterday’s activity still hanging over the market and discouraging any larger positions from being established. This consolidation did provide a platform for the market to continue looking upward during the early afternoon, but there was only limited movement with US specs also taking a low-risk view oof things. The price did slowly edge higher over the following hours to sit just shy of the morning highs around $622.00, and this did serve to bring some movement to white premium values with May/May’24 back to $133.50 having earlier fallen towards $130. As the flat price tracked along into the final hour there was a further strengthening of the white premium beyond $135.00, however that did not prevent the flat price from suffering another pullback. Long liquidation sent the May’24 contract back quickly to $612.50, and though settlement was reached at $614.80 such an uninspiring end to the day will concern bulls and likely confine us to the range for the near-term.