Insight Focus
The urea market awaits the Indian tender results. Processed phosphate prices continue climbing amid tight supply and restricted Chinese exports. Potash and ammonia prices remain mostly stable despite new contracts and limited spot activity.
EU Imposes New Tariffs on Russian, Belarusian Fertilizers
The EU has now formally adopted new tariffs on remaining Russian and Belarusian agricultural products, as well as on a range of fertilizers. The regulation implementing the tariffs enters into force on July 1.
The new tariffs add an additional EUR 40/tonne on imports of most nitrogen fertilizers — including urea, amsul, AN, CAN and UAN — from Russia and Belarus, beginning July 1. They also add EUR 45/tonne to the import of DAP, MAP, NPKs NP, and some other grades. The new tariffs are in addition to already-existing import tariffs to the EU. For most grades from Russia, these import tariffs are set at 6.5%.
Source: KPLER
From 2026 until 2028, the rates will increase to reach levels of EUR 315/tonne and EUR 430/tonne, respectively, for the two product groups. The legal text also foresees the immediate application of the highest rates if cumulative imports exceed 2.7 million tonnes in 2025–2026, 1.8 million tonnes in 2026–2027 or 900,000 tonnes in 2027–2028.
Urea Market Awaits India Tender
The international urea market has been in a holding mood, awaiting the 1.5-million-tonne West Coast India tender closing on June 12 for shipments no later than July 31. Prices in the NFL’s tender June 12 urea tender have emerged, with the lowest offers at USD 399/tonne CFR west coast India for a combined 299,000 tonnes from two trading firms. NFL has issued counterbids to all 23 suppliers for a total of close to 2.5 million tonnes, valid until June 16.
However, with the increased tension between Israel and Iran it is very possible that no other trading company will accept the counters since urea prices have jumped in response to the conflict. Therefore it is being speculated that NFL will take the 299,000 tonnes (L1) at USD 399/tonne CFR and will be forced to re-tender.
Concurrently—and some would say conveniently—a sale was reported at USD 391/tonne FOB Middle East for a cargo of 30,000 tonne granular urea destined for Australia. Fortunately, the eastern and southern parts of Australia received decent rains over the past few days so farmers would most likely flock to warehouses and secure cargo for immediate application, albeit late in the application season.
Other than this, Dangote announced a tender for 2 parcels of 30,000 tonnes with shipment at the end of June, and the price could possibly be in line with current levels and in line with Indorama selling a cargo in the low USD 390s/tonne FOB last week.
Brazil CFR levels are offered at around the USD 400/tonne CFR level, against bids of USD 390/tonne CFR. The season in Brazil has yet to commence its major buying but is edging closer, and it is reported that Brazil is significantly behind regular buying at this time of year compared to last year due to concerns about affordability.
Iranian Lordegan is reported to have sold 30,000 tonnes of granular urea at USD 345.60/tonne FOB, below the announced floor of USD 350/tonne FOB. Ethiopia has delayed its buying tender for 250,000 tonnes until June 16.
Chinese urea is rumoured to be entering the export markets, clearing CIQ processing with a floor price of USD 370/tonne FOB for granular urea and USD 360/tonne for prilled urea. Some reports indicate that prilled urea has changed hands below the USD 360/tonne floor price.
Malaysian spot selling has been limited this year due to repeated technical issues at aging plants, and exports from January to April at 654,000 tonnes are ahead of 613,000 tonnes year-over-year, with Thailand and Chile each taking 33,000 tonnes and the Philippines at 28,000 tonnes. Chinese prilled urea is struggling to find support even at USD 345/tonne FOB, which is USD 15/tonne below the floor price set by the government.
The outlook for urea prices will hinge on price discovery in India, and unless a “wild” low number emerges, prices should at a minimum remain at current levels.
Phosphate Prices Climb Again
The international processed phosphate market has been doubling every week over the past six months, with ever-higher prices week on week due to a lack of availability, with Chinese production still absent from the market.
The current MAP price in Brazil is USD 730/tonne CFR, with producers looking for higher prices, but Brazilian buyers are resisting due to concerns over affordability. However, with China restricting exports of NP (NPS/SSP), buyers in Brazil will again be looking toward higher-value processed phosphates on the back of an expected bumper soybean crop. Prices are most likely to increase. The flip side of this is that the more soybeans there are, the lower the price of soybeans and therefore the lower the demand for high-priced processed phosphates.
Source: Conab
Imports of P2O5 in Brazil for the January–March period were 884,098 tonnes compared with 698,351 tonnes in the same period of 2024, an increase of 27%. Full-year imports were 4.77 million tonnes, down 1.6% year over year but 23% higher than the 10-year average of 3.87 million tonnes. The Argentinian MAP assessment was up at USD 755–765/tonne CFR this week versus USD 750–755/tonne CFR last week, with even higher prices indicated on July cargoes.
India appears to be heading towards USD 800/tonne CFR for DAP, with the last offers at USD 780/tonne CFR – up from the USD 752–762/tonne CFR range. This is USD 22/tonne up week on week and USD 155–160/tonne above the current breakeven based on the prevailing MRD and NBS prices and subsidies. In the last 10 weeks, the India CFR price has increased by USD 113/tonne, with imports of 1.3 million tonnes of DAP through June 5.
Prices in Southeast Asia are around USD 750–760/tonne CFR, and to date, Thailand and Indonesia combined have imported 100,181 tonnes – up from 22,262 tonnes for the same period last year. OCP of Morocco leads the imports at 56,710 tonnes, followed by Vietnam at 41,705 tonnes.
Prices are expected to keep going up over the next few weeks with increased demand and lack of availability, although affordability could come into play.
Potash Prices Hold
Global potash prices remained largely stable in quiet trade, with all eyes on China after a group of importers signed the 2025 import contract with Russia’s Uralkali at USD 346/tonne CFR this week. The market is keeping a close watch on its impact on the Southeast Asian markets.
With low inventory at ports and strong import demand in the first half of the year in China, the latest 2025 contract was settled only slightly lower—USD 3/tonne below the India contract, sources said. However, prices were unmoved immediately after the announcement was made on June 12, while prices had already begun declining in the domestic Chinese markets earlier in the week and ahead of the contract settlement. Wholesale MOP prices at Chinese ports slipped to RMB 2,950–3,150/tonne FCA, down from last week’s assessment of RMB 2,950–3,250/tonne FCA.
In other Asian markets, standard and granular prices were unchanged as demand remained subdued. Most buyers in Indonesia and Malaysia have already secured required supplies, leaving activity in the market largely muted, sources said.
Standard MOP prices were unchanged at USD 335–355/tonne CFR, and granular MOP prices were flat for the fifth straight week at USD 360–370/tonne CFR.
In Brazil, prices were also unchanged but held firm due to tight spot supply. Offers were heard in the range of USD 365–370/tonne CFR, but no deals were reportedly concluded at the upper end of the range. Buyers also hesitated to purchase supply at higher levels, leaving the market unchanged.
The outlook for prices is slightly bullish over the next couple of months.
Ammonia Remains Steady
Ammonia benchmarks on both sides of the Suez were little changed again this week amid a seemingly balanced supply-demand outlook, although those of a more bullish persuasion continue to support the notion that prices will soon—if they have not already—reach a floor.
The outlook appears balanced on prices for the most part, although more bullish participants seem to be holding sway over market sentiment.
