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  • India’s best monsoon in 25 years will not reverse the effects of the dry weather earlier this year. 
  • We forecast that India’s sugar production will fall by 17%, from 33m tonnes to 27.5m tonnes in the forthcoming season. 
  • India still continues to produce surplus sugar even with the ‘poor’ crop and stocks remain high too.

What This Means for India

India’s Total Sugar Production

  • India is expected to produce 27.5m tonnes sugar production in the upcoming season. 
  • Despite the 17% decrease y-o-y, India will still be in surplus with its consumption at 26m tonnes. 

Indian Net Sugar Production


Czarnikow’s 2019/20 India Estimates

  • Maharashtra is the main reason for India’s year-on-year reduction in production. 
  • Dry weather seen in the first half of the year caused reservoirs to dry out, affecting cane irrigation and reducing agricultural and sucrose yields. 

Sugar Production in Maharashtra

  • The prolonged dry spell also affected Karnataka’s cane and we think this will cause a 20% reduction in sugar production this season. 

Sugar Production in Karnataka 

  • Uttar Pradesh, however, is expected to create a record amount of sugar this season. Water scarcity has not been a problem as irrigation comes from the river Ganges as opposed to rainwater. 
  • On top of this, increased plantings of high-yielding cane varieties will help with sugar production. 

Sugar Production in Uttar Pradesh