• India has produced close to 22m tonnes of sugar this season, 8% higher YoY  
  • The pace of crushing suggests that 18/19 production will surpass 31m tonnes (and therefore ISMA’s crop estimate).  
  • The domestic oversupply makes it likely there will be another export program next season. 

Uttar Pradesh – Production Catching Up 

  • YoY Production in UP was lagging during the start of 18/19 crush 
  • In the latest stats release, UP have finally caught up with 6.4m tonnes produced so far, just 0.5m tonnes shy of last year. 
  • All UP mills are still crushing and we are expecting a higher production from increased plantings with new cane varieties Co0238.  
  • We think UP is likely to produce close to 11.5m tonnes, close to the 12m tonnes achieved in 17/18.  

 Maharashtra – In the Top Spot 

  • Maharashtra has now overtaken Uttar Pradesh to be the top producing state with 8.3m tonnes produced so far. 
  • Consistent bi-weekly production suggests that overall production is likely to beat last year’s record production of 10.7m tonnes. 
  • 181 mills were still crushing; 6 MH mills have completed crushing for this season.  
  • At this point last year, 183 mills were still crushing.  
  • We think MH is likely to produce above 12m tonnes this season compared to 10.7m tonnes last season

Karnataka – Highest YoY Increase

  • Karnataka production is 26% higher YoY with 3.9m tonnes produced for far.  
  • There is a 10% increase in KN cane acreage. Also, sucrose yields are better than normal due to good rainfall 
  • 57 out of 67 mills are still crushing for this season compared to 52 last year.  
  • We think KN’s overall production could reach 5m tonnes, against 3.7m tonnes last year.