• We have downgraded our production forecast due to the crush starting to slow.
  • Export policy changes look unlikely this season and we have therefore reduced our export number.
  • Stocks remain high so we believe that an export program will be needed next season. 

Revisions to Our Estimates 

  • We are downgrading our production estimates from 34m tonnes to 32.5m tonnes due to the crush starting to slow. 
  • This would reduce our ending stock level by 1.5 m tonnes.
  • However, with a further export policy change looking unlikely we are also reducing our export forecast from 5m to 3.5m tonnes.
  • The changes will mean our net closing stock position remains the same at 13.5m tonnes.
  • Last season, with an endingstock of 10m tonnes a 5m tonne export program was announced for this season.
  • With 13.5m tonnes of stock we expect a further program to be needed to reduce stocks next season. 

Maharashtra – In the Top spot 

  • Maharashtra is the top producing state with 9.2 tonnes produced so far – 9% higher YoY compared to 8.4m tonnes last year.
  • 170 MH mills were still crushing and 21 MH mills have completed crushing for this season.
  • At this point last year, 169 mills were still in operation.
  • We think MH is likely to produce close to 12m tonnes this season compared to 10.7m tonnes last season 

Uttar Pradesh – Holds the Key  

  • UP’s production have reached 7.3m tonnes of production, lower by 1% YoY.
  • 117 UP mills are still crushing, similar to last season.
  • We think UP is likely to produce close to 11.5m tonnes, close following 12m tonnes in 17/18.  

Karnataka – Quick Tailing off  

  •  Karnataka production is 25% higher YoY with 4.2m tonnes produced for far.
  • 35 out of 67 mills are still crushing for this season compared to 38 last year.
  • We think KN’s overall production could reach 5m tonnes, against 3.7m tonnes last year.