India remains on course to produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar in 2020/21, versus consumption at 25.3m tonnes.
- Sugar production has started fast with 1.4m tonnes produced by 1H November.
- This is the fastest start in over seven years and comes as the crushing season started ahead of schedule.
- It did so as India’s water supply was plentiful, and its cane availability was up due to increased planting and improved cane yields.
- There are 274 mills in operation, compared to 310 in 2018/19, the year where India achieved record sugar production.
- With strong production, sugar stocks should increase to record levels unless sugar is exported.
- We think India will supply 6m tonnes of sugar to the world market; 3m tonnes of raws and 3m tonnes of whites.
- In the absence of any subsidy, raw sugar prices would need to be 19c/lb, or white sugar prices would need to be 480 USD/mt for Indian exports to be workable.
Keep updated with India’s crop progress, and several other countries, using this Interactive Data tool.
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