Sugar Futures and Market Data: 16th January 2023

Insight Focus

  • Both raw and refined sugar futures have strengthened over the last week.
  • No.11 speculators aggressively closed part of their long positions.
  • Raw sugar consumers have added plenty of new hedges during market weakness.

New York No.11 (Raw Sugar)

No.11 futures strengthen over the last week, consolidating around 19.5c/lb toward the end of the week.

By the 10th of January (latest CoT CFTC), most of the recent spec long positions built with the market above 20c/lb have now come under pressure. As such, over 48k lots were closed.

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With 5k lots of spec short positions closed too, the net spec position has fallen by 42k lots to 159k lots.

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On the commercial side, despite the market not reaching the lower end of the 18-20c/lb range, raw sugar consumers added almost 30k lots of new hedges, taking advantage of the weakest market prices since early November 2022.

Simultaneously, raw sugar producers closed 24k lots of short positions.

The No.11 forward curve has slightly steepened in the nearby contracts, remaining inverted until Oct’23 moving into contango to Mar’24.

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London No.5 (Refined Sugar)

No.5 refined sugar futures mostly traded sideways over the last week, closing at 547USD/mt by Friday.

By the 10th of January (latest CoT CFTC), whilst the No.5 was falling, the net spec position notably retreated to 32k lots, the lowest since November 2022.

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The No.5 forward curve remains strongly backwardated into 2024.

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White Premium (Arbitrage)

The H/H sugar white premium remains stable around the 110USD/mt mark.

We think re-exports refiners need around 115-125USD/mt above the No.11 to profitably produce refined sugar, above where the white premium has been for the last few months, therefore physical values are necessary to bridge this gap.

Comparatively stronger K/K and Q/N white premiums both pushing through 120USD/mt suggest the refined sugar market is likely to be slightly undersupplied for most of 2023.

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For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the data appendix below.

No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix 

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No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix 

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White Premium Appendix 

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