Insight Focus
- Both raw and refined sugar prices have strengthened over the past week.
- Speculators hold net long positions in both markets.
- The H/H white premium has strengthened, now standing at 126USD/mt
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
Raw sugar futures prices have somewhat strengthened in the past week, going from a low of 26c at the start of the week before closing at 27c/Ib by end of trade Friday.
During this timeframe, commercial participants decided to add to their existing hedges, with consumers adding approximately 8.5k lots and producers adding double this, with 17.5k lots most likely towards the end of the week as prices hit 27c.
Turning our attention to the speculators, they have also been slightly busy, adding almost 10k lots of spec long position.
Despite a few short positions being closed out, the overall net spec position has grown by 10.6k lots to 175k.
With contracts strengthening across the board, the No.11 forward curve remains inverted through to Jul’26.
London No.5 Refined Sugar Futures
Similar to the No.11, the No.5 refined sugar price has risen in the last week, from a low of 710USD/mt at the beginning of the week to a high of 729USD/mt last Friday.
With the market moving upwards, the presented speculators with the opportunity to add to their positions, and so over the past week the net spec positions has grown now reaching just under 25k lots.
Having said that, the No.5 forwards continues to remain inverted through Mary’25.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
Given that both markets, the No.11 and No.5, strengthened slightly over the past week, this has helped boost the white premium bringing it up to 126.5USD/mt from 117USD/mt seen last week.
The refined sugar market is expected to be undersupplied for the majority of 2024, as evidenced by a strong K/K and Q/N white premiums, both of which are trading around 140USD/mt.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
