Sugar Futures and Market Data: 18th March 2024

Insight Focus

• The No.11 raw sugar futures strengthened in the past week.
• The index position in sugar continues to fall.
• The K/K white premium has strengthened, standing at 136USD/mt.

New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures

Over the last week, the No.11 raw sugar futures strengthened slightly, trading around 22c/lb.

The index net position has fallen drastically for the first time since Dec’23. Index involvement in the sugar market remains low. Speculators are also effectively out of the market, with a net long of just 18k lots. 

Looking at the commercial participants, they have both been active in the past week with end-users opening 6k lots of new hedges, most likely towards the start of the week when prices were trading around 21c/lb.

On the other hand, producers have been hedging into the price strength. 

The No.11 raw sugar futures curve has flattened since our last update. 

London No.5 Refined Sugar Futures

The No.5 refined sugar futures contract has continued to strengthen in the past week, closing at 623USD/mt last Friday. 

The market has strengthened since last week, despite the macro environment continuing to be unsupportive of sugar. Speculators are still going neutral, closing 49 lots long positions in the past week. 

The refined sugar futures curve has flattened but continues to remain backwardated. 

White Premium (Arbitrage)

The K/K White premium strengthened to 136USD/mt. With the refined sugar market no longer being under supplied in Q1/Q2, the Q/N and V/V white premium have weakened to reflect this ease in the market. 

Many re-exports refiners need around 105-115USD/mt above the No.11 to profitably produce refined sugar, therefore physical values should still be necessary to bridge this gap.

For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below. 

No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix 

No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix 

White Premium Appendix