• The No.11 fell to near 18 c/lb over the last week.
• This could give consumers another good opportunity to buy.
• The white premium still looks positive despite a fall in the No.5.

New York No.11 (Raw Sugar)

• The specs bought aggressively to close the new short positions that facilitated the price drop below 18 c/lb.
• The recent fluctuations between 18 and 19c/lb is indicative of a lack of clear direction in the market.
• The forward curve continues to flatten in 2022, increasing the attractiveness of forward buying.
• Jul’22 now trades at a discount to Oct’22, which is opportune for re-export refining.

No.5 London (White Sugar)

• Whilst the No.5 has seen pressure in the last week, the white premium has strengthened.
• There’s been little change in the net speculative position highlighting a lack of direction in the market.
• The K’22 and Q’22 open interest is below historic levels, which suggests physical demand for 2022 may be lacklustre.

White Premium (Arbitrage)

• Both the H/H and K/K 2022 white premiums have recovered due to fresh pressure on the No.11 and remain at historically strong levels.
• Whilst this is slightly lower than the margin needed by many refiners, cash values or discounted raw spreads could help bridge this deficit.

Other Insights That May Be of Interest… 

Market View: Sugar Loses Direction