• Rainfall has picked up since Apr’19 but is still 33% down y-o-y. 
  • However, July rainfall looks to be strong and could reduce worries around a crop reduction. 
  • Whilst an insect infestation has been reported we don’t expect it to have a drastic effect on the cane. 

Rainfall Picking Up But Is It Good Enough?  

  • Concerns of low rainfall started in January’19 as Thailand was hit by the lowest recorded rainfall seen. 
  • Since April’19, rainfall has picked up significantly and it has continued into June’19. 
  • That said, the cumulative average rainfall is still down y-o-y by 33%.  

Monthly Average Rainfall 

  • July rainfall could potentially help to narrow the cumulative difference y-o-y based on the latest mapping.  
  • And if strong rains were to continue throughout Q3’19 then our crop number of 120m tonnes would be safe. 
  • However, far off forecasts predict below average rainfall for Q3 which would affect cane. 
  • If rainfall comes in, as is forecast, 5-10% below average, at a worst case we could reduce our cane number in the region of 2-7m tonnes.  

Concern on Cicadas? 

  • It has been reported that the cicadas have affected some cane planting areas in the Central and Lower North regions.  
  • Cicadas are insects that lay their eggs in the soil and the young to feed on the roots of the crop. Stopping the cane from growing and eventually killing it. 
  • Currently, about 6,400 ha of cane has been damaged, indicating about a potential 480k tonnes of cane could be affected, and farmers have been putting preventive measures to stop the cicada from spreading.  
  • So far it seems that the issue is now under control. 
  • However, we will continue to monitor the situation and if the problem arises again on top of the weather risk this could further pressure on our 120mmt forecast.