Insight Focus

Early May rains aided sugarcane recovery from drought. But rainfall varied significantly from region to region. The anticipated La Nina in Q3 2024 may improve yield if the expected increased rainfall arrives.

Thailand Cane Condition Improves

After two quarters of lacklustre rain due to El Nino, it looks like Thailand’s cane crop has begun to recover from drought-induced damage. The first rain usually comes in early to mid-May, and this period is crucial this year for cane farmers hoping for crop recovery.

The pictures below capture actual sugarcane observed by the Cz Thailand team during a recent crop tour. They highlight the remarkable recovery (right) of damaged cane (left) within a few weeks of rainfall. 

After the first rainfall, farmers normally resume their normal routine of applying fertilizer and carrying out weed management. We expect Thailand to achieve around 105 to 115 million tonnes of sugarcane for the next crop season.

Rainfall Improves in Thailand 

Thailand received some rain in early May, although this is still down year over year. The country has experienced an average of 180mm, down 30% year over year.

By the end of the month, we hope that Thailand will receive around 200mm of rainfall, although this is still 22% down year over year. 

The average rainfall in the North is currently 138mm, down 21% since this time last year. 

Average rainfall in the Northeast is 173mm, a 22% year over year decline. 

Rainfall in the East has averaged 225mm, a drop of 16% year over year. 

The Central region is the only one to record an increase in average rainfall for the year to date. Average rainfall has totalled 166mm, 33% up on last year. 

If La Nina arrives in the third quarter of 2024, the rainfall could improve sugarcane yields further. 

Kanjanaporn Dechwan

Kanjanaporn (Atom) joined Czarnikow’s analysis team mid-2022, she graduated with a degree of Agriculture from Thailand (previously explored Food science and Technology & Agriculture for 6 months as an intern in Japan). Before joining Czarnikow, Atom began her career in the entertainment industry and is now responsible for Czapp content from Thailand, Crop production data and other market analysis such as Sugarcane, Grain, Cassava etc.

More from this author