• India’s monsoon rainfall continues at a strong pace, favouring cane development.
  • The reservoirs in the key sugar production areas remain at their highest level for seven years.
  • India is on track to produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar next season but remains 500k tonnes shy of the 2018/19 record.

The Monsoon Continues at a Good Pace

  • The monsoon rainfall has been as expected across most of India so far.
  • Tamil Nadu’s rainfall, however, has been above average.

India’s Reservoir Levels

  • Reservoir levels in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra are still at their highest level in seven years.
  • This is favourable for both agricultural and sucrose yields.
  • Karnataka’s reservoir levels are lower, but higher-than-normal rainfall there should allow them to catch up as the monsoon progresses.

Where Does This Leave Sugar Production in 2020/21?

  • Weather conditions and water availability have been optimal for cane growth so far in 2020.
  • We therefore think India will produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar in 2020/21.
  • This is a 6m tonne increase year-on-year (YoY) and just 500k tonnes shy of the record.

Other Opinions You May Be Interested In…

Comments? Questions? We’d love to hear from you! Please email us at analysis@czarnikow.com.