• India’s monsoon rainfall is above average.
  • Reservoirs in India’s key sugar-producing states are at their highest levels for the past seven years.
  • We think India will produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar next season, just 500k tonnes shy of their 2018/19 record.

The Monsoon is Off to a Good Start

  • India’s monsoon lasts from June to September and provides up to 80% of India’s annual rainfall.
  • It is therefore crucial for India’s crops that it arrives on time and progresses as normal.
  • So far, the monsoon rainfall has been above average across India.

Reservoir Levels at Seven-Year High

  • Reservoir levels in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra are at their highest level in seven years.
  • This is favourable for agricultural and sucrose yields.
  • Karnataka’s reservoir levels are lower, but higher-than-normal rainfall there should allow them to catch up as the monsoon progresses.

Where Does This Leave Production in 2020/21?

  • Weather conditions and water availability have been perfect for cane growth so far in 2020.
  • We therefore think India will produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar in 2020/21.
  • This is a 6m tonne increase year-on-year (YoY) and just 500k tonnes shy of the record.