Raw Sugar Update

Holding ahead of 16c yesterday has clearly given the market a boost as shown by a more positive opening which saw Oct’25 initially up to 16.40. There was a pause to the progress though and prices retreated a little, but still it seemed that the tide had turned to investigate back up through the range again, something which was visually apparent by the middle of the morning when a sharp push through to new daily highs took place. This drew in spec and algo buying and launched Oct’25 back into the 16.50’s before pausing when some pricing orders appeared and drew in some profit taking, though the selling was considered and there was no significant pullback to be seen. Moving through into the afternoon there was a touch more volatility which led the market back to the 16.40’s, however when this failed to draw new pressure the price turned back upward and drew some more small trader support to reach new daily highs. Oct’25 traded to 16.63 before settling down to hold near to 16.60 through the later stages, steady but unspectacular activity which serves to stabilize values back within the board 16/17c band. Having sustained the gains through there was a predictably quiet close which resulted in Oct’25 settling at 16.57, concluding a solid recovery which may signal more calm trading for the days ahead.   

Raw Sugar No.11 (SB) – ICE Futures US Softs
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Oct’25 16.30 16.63 16.25 16.57 0.33 16.57 50,553 400,989
Mar’26 16.94 17.22 16.89 17.15 0.28 17.15 26,567 220,787
May’26 16.60 16.89 16.60 16.84 0.27 16.82 10,220 84,591
Jul’26 16.52 16.76 16.51 16.72 0.26 16.68 4,602 67,356
Oct’26 16.69 16.93 16.68 16.88 0.25 16.86 2,948 42,769
Mar’27 17.15 17.38 17.14 17.33 0.24 17.31 1,965 24,320
May’27 16.81 17.03 16.81 16.97 0.21 16.96 1,578 11,875
Jul’27 16.68 16.87 16.68 16.81 0.18 16.81 982 11,589
Oct’27 16.82 16.94 16.80 16.88 0.16 16.94 860 8,133
Mar’28 17.20 17.26 17.13 17.24 0.17 17.26 384 1,765
May’28 16.87 16.93 16.80 16.92 0.20 16.93 332 178
                 
Total             100,991 874,352

White Sugar Update

Having jumper higher on the opening we saw the gains tempered across the next hour, though the market did at least show signs of stabilizing following the wobble earlier in the week. This provided the basis for a rally during the middle of the morning which saw Oct’25 move up to $479.00 on low volume before stagnating as the impetus was lost. The gains had at least provided the basis for Oct’25 and Dec’25 spreads to recover some ground, though as the afternoon arrived it was not clear as to what the next move might be. The influence of US specs both on us and the No.11 did provide a small move higher, and though this was soon followed by some liquidation / profit taking the market was feeling more comfortable and buying returned to take Oct’25 up to a high of $481.90 following a slow afternoon of steady trading. White premiums were also wider with Oct/Oct’25 moving back over $115.00, combining with the flat price to provide a more stable platform once more. In keeping with the afternoon, the day concluded quietly with Oct’25 edging along to a settlement at $480.20, while Oct/Oct’25 was valued at $114.90 and Oct/Dec’25 at 9.10. 

White Sugar No.5 (QW) – ICE Futures Europe Commodities
Month Open High Low Sett Chg Last Vol O/I
Oct’25 475.00 481.90 471.60 480.20 8.80 480.60 5,757 60,262
Dec’25 464.90 472.30 462.30 471.10 9.00 471.40 2,790 29,564
Mar’26 466.60 473.40 464.50 472.40 8.10 472.00 1,687 16,783
May’26 468.40 473.60 466.50 472.70 6.60 472.50 627 5,664
Aug’26 467.80 472.80 466.50 471.80 5.80 472.30 112 4,420
Oct’26 468.30 473.70 467.80 472.60 5.50 473.20 76 2,551
Dec’26 473.60 476.50 472.70 475.60 5.50 476.20 35 1,920
Mar’27          –              –              –   480.10 4.90 474.10 9 763
May’27          –              –              –   481.20 3.40 476.90 8 206
Aug’27          –              –              –   481.30 1.70 479.50 10 152
Oct’27          –              –              –   481.30 1.50 478.80            –   130
Dec’27          –              –              –   481.20 1.50 478.00            –   12
Mar’28          –              –              –   480.90 1.50 –            –                –  
May’28          –              –              –   480.90 1.50 –            –                –  
Total             11,111 122,427
A man with short brown hair and glasses, wearing a light striped shirt, is smiling and looking slightly to the left in an indoor setting. Other people are blurred in the background.

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

More from this author