ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No.11 Contract
Settlement (cUS$/lb) Open High Low Last Volume O/I Life High Life Low
Mar27 18.33 -0.73 ▼ 19.05 19.06 18.31 18.35 128,717 629,298 21.29 14.42
May27 17.80 -0.75 ▼ 18.52 18.55 17.79 17.83 43,842 205,569 20.40 14.29
Jul27 17.48 -0.71 ▼ 18.17 18.19 17.47 17.51 34,326 153,094 19.81 14.27
Oct27 17.50 -0.66 ▼ 18.15 18.17 17.50 17.52 22,381 100,700 19.63 14.45
Mar28 17.88 -0.57 ▼ 18.45 18.46 17.87 17.91 12,059 56,391 19.83 14.97
May28 16.87 -0.49 ▼ 17.35 17.37 16.87 16.90 4,062 25,029 18.77 14.82
Jul28 16.39 -0.40 ▼ 16.77 16.78 16.40 16.42 2,919 19,251 18.10 14.74
Oct28 16.36 -0.32 ▼ 16.66 16.67 16.36 16.39 2,664 16,767 17.91 15.01
Mar29 16.77 -0.24 ▼ 16.96 16.96 16.76 16.81 2,247 6,774 18.19 16.20
May29 16.39 -0.17 ▼ 16.51 16.51 16.37 16.42 1,589 1,835 17.74 16.02
Jul29 16.19 -0.12 ▼ 16.27 16.30 16.15 16.30 1,006 3,028 17.50 16.15
Oct29 16.16 —   — — — — — — — —
Total               255,812 1,217,736    
*Volume includes exchange for physicals.

 

 

ICE U.S. Sugar No.11 – Spreads
Date Spread Date Spread
Mar27 / May27 0.53 Oct27 / Mar28 -0.38
Mar27 / Jul27 0.85 Oct27 / May28 0.63
Mar27 / Oct27 0.83 Mar28 / May28 1.01
Mar27 / Mar28 0.45 Mar28 / Jul28 1.49
May27 / Jul27 0.32 May28 / Jul28 0.48
May27 / Oct27 0.30 May28 / Oct28 0.51
Jul27 / Oct27 -0.02 Jul28 / Oct28 0.03
Jul27 / Mar28 -0.40 Jul28 / Mar29 -0.38

 

Opening prints at unchanged were fleeting and across the first few minutes of trading March’27 was punched down through last week’s 18.85 low as more spec longs headed for the exit door. There was buying in place from consumers on a scale down basis, however against the tide of selling it was being filled at a rapid pace and the price hit 18.39 with barely an hour of the session having elapsed. The pace of selling cooled and this allowed prices to consolidate the lower end, and while a covering rally from day traders then followed around noon it was simply that and faded away quite quickly. Into the afternoon prices remained within a tight band, caught ahead of the scale buying and suffering from limited spec involvement as those remaining long sit in hope that there can be a recovery, though they themselves are not able to justify buying in the current climate. Marginal new lows were recorded at 18.36, and the price continued to sit within a few points of this mark into the later afternoon as even the day traders stood aside from participation. There was no hint of recovery ahead of the close, and such was the weak nature of the performance that additional selling arrived on the close and sent the market to a daily low at 18.31, with settlement just a couple of points above at 18.33. 

 

ICE Europe White Sugar Futures Contract
Settlement (US$/mt) Open High Low Last Volume O/I Life High Life Low
Dec26 500.20 -9.20 ▼ 503.30 506.00 496.50 500.10 15,426 28,525 567.70 393.20
Mar27 513.90 -12.20 ▼ 520.20 520.60 510.30 514.10 19,685 65,621 577.40 398.00
May27 518.40 -14.00 ▼ 527.40 527.40 516.90 518.80 8,233 32,884 581.80 401.40
Aug27 515.80 -13.10 ▼ 523.80 523.80 514.60 515.80 4,133 16,409 574.30 404.30
Oct27 511.40 -11.50 ▼ 518.00 518.00 510.20 511.20 1,500 7,735 565.30 408.20
Dec27 508.90 -10.20 ▼ 515.00 515.00 507.70 509.00 900 3,896 558.20 414.30
Mar28 507.30 -9.10 ▼ 511.20 511.90 506.50 507.50 145 902 552.60 421.00
May28 499.90 -8.00 ▼ 505.00 505.00 500.50 500.50 44 890 542.80 426.30
Aug28 489.30 -13.60 ▼ 501.30 501.90 500.60 501.50 12 636 529.90 431.10
Oct28 479.30 -40.30 ▼ 520.00 520.00 520.00 520.00 1 76 520.00 441.70
Dec28 475.80 -41.90 ▼ 518.10 518.10 518.10 518.10 1 7 518.10 468.60
Mar29 477.80 -36.00 ▼ 517.10 517.10 517.10 517.10 1 5 517.10 483.20
May29 474.80 -39.30 ▼ 517.50 517.50 517.50 517.50 1 16 517.50 483.90
Aug29 471.80 —   — — — — — — — —
Total               50,082 157,602    
*Volume includes exchange for physicals.

 

 

ICE Europe White Sugar – Spreads
Date Spread Date Spread
Dec26 / Mar27 -13.70 Mar27 / May27 -4.50
Dec26 / May27 -18.20 May27 / Aug27 2.60
Dec26 / Aug27 -15.60 Aug27 / Oct27 4.40
Dec26 / Oct27 -11.20 Oct27 / Dec27 2.50

 

 

White Sugar Premium
Date Premium Date Premium
Mar27 / Mar27 109.79 Jul28 / Aug28 127.96
May27 / May27 125.98 Oct28 / Oct28 118.62
Jul27 / Aug27 130.43 Mar29 / Mar29 108.09
Oct27 / Oct27 125.59 May29 / May29 113.46
Mar28 / Mar28 113.11 Jul29 / Aug29 114.87
May28 / May28 127.98    
*Values calculated basis 6:17 PM.

 

With No.11 already showing sizable losses the market gapped lower on the opening and continued downward from its initial $520.60 ‘high’. Buyers were hard to find and across the first hour March’27 descended through the teens, only finding some respite later in the morning from opportunistic pricing and short covering after reaching a low at $510.30. The recovery, for what it was, extended up to $517.80, however with specs now running scared of their long holding the market could not find any impetus to continue. Into the afternoon activity settled down, and the market became trapped within a narrow band centred around $514.00 on lower outright volumes. The Dec’26/March’27 spread continued to pull its weight with another sizable roll volume, and in a continuation of yesterdays movement the differential rallied to -$12.20 aided by the weight of pressure upon the March’27 contract. After flatlining for several hours, the close arrived with zero fanfare, continuing in the same area to a close at $513.90 while Dec’26/March’27 headed out at $-13.70. This adds further to the technical weakness, and while the lower levels may bring interest from the multinationals it is hard to see where a sustainable recovery generates from at this time.

 

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Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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