Insight Focus
PET futures increased following a recent Chinese government-led ‘anti-involution symposium’. PET resin export prices remain static, and margins are squeezed following raw material cost increases. The PET futures forward curve remains in slight contango through H1 2026 and margins should remain thin.
PTA Futures and Forward Curve
PTA futures showed some improvement last week, breaking the post-holiday down trend, with main month contracts rising by as much as 1.25%.
Crude oil prices trod water last week, with Brent keeping to around USD 64-65/bbl. On Sunday, OPEC+ opted for a limited production increase in December and delayed further hikes in the first quarter of 2026, creating mixed signals and no obvious direction on Monday trading.
High polyester operating rates maintained the demand side draw for PTA, whilst modest reduction in PTA supply maintained the supply/demand balance.
Looking forward, the recent government led ‘anti-involution symposium’ designed to curb over-competition within the Chinese PTA and polyester industries may also provide support for PTA prices, depending on the willingness of industry participants to adopt policy changes.
The PTA forward curve premium has steadily increased into contango over the last month. The Jan’26 contract has a RMB 42/tonne premium to the current month’s contract, and May’26 holds a RMB 100/tonne premium.
MEG Futures and Forward Curve
MEG futures fell by a further 1.9%, down nearly 10% since mid-August.
East China main port inventories continued their downward trend, decreasing a further 0.4% last week to 469,000 tonnes, as arrivals faced delays. Moving into November, arrivals are expected to increase with abundant overseas supply.
With offtake now hitting seasonal lows, pricing continue to face inventory pressure from oversupply, although high polyester operating rates will likely provide support.
The MEG Futures forward curve has also moved into greater contango since the early October national holiday. Jan’26 holds a RMB 46/tonne premium over the current month, and May’26 holds a RMB 121/tonne premium.
PET Resin Export – Raw Material Spread and Forward Curve
Chinese PET resin export prices firmed on the back of higher raw material prices to USD 760/tonne, an increase of USD 10/tonne versus the previous week. Despite crude oil volatility over the few months, PET resin prices continue to keep to a tight range.
The average weekly PET resin physical differential against raw material future costs decreased USD 5/tonne to average positive USD 14/tonne last week. By Friday, the daily differential was at positive USD 20/tonne.
The raw material forward curve has strengthened over the last month, Jan’26 now has a USD 10/tonne premium over the current month, and May’26 holds a USD 18/tonne premium.
PET Resin Futures and Forward Curve
PET Resin Futures contracts still showed a forward premium. Although near term contracts with the most liquidity faced some headwinds, easing very slightly, main 2026 contract months gained by just under 0.5%.
The current month (Nov’25) dipped slightly by around 0.2% to RMB 5,694/tonne (USD 800/tonne).
The average weekly premium of the Nov’25 PET Futures over Nov’25 Raw Material Futures eased slightly to USD 69/tonne, down USD 1/tonne. By Friday, the daily premium was USD 67/tonne.
The PET Resin Futures forward curve remains relatively flat in the near-term, moving into contango further out. Jan’26 remains at a RMB 30/tonne (USD 4/tonne) discount over the current month. May’26 holds a RMB 36/tonne (USD 5/tonne) premium.
Concluding Thoughts
Chinese PET resin export prices continue to keep within a very tight range. Recent attempts by producers to move pricing higher following the October holiday have broadly fallen flat. Although discounting at the lower end of the range has reduced.
Overseas export interest remains relatively flat amid the off-season, with buyers having purchased stocks earlier in the cycle.
Latest Chinese PET trade data also highlights demand weakness, with monthly export volumes in September showing month-on-month declines, following a similarly disappointing August for exports.
Increasing freight rates may also result in more hesitant discussions. Although, whether carriers will be able to maintain general rate increases is another item of debate, given similar failed move in August.
For PET hedging enquiries, please contact the risk management desk at MKirby@czarnikow.com.
For research and analysis questions, please get in touch with GLamb@czarnikow.com.
