Insight Focus
PET and PTA Futures showed modest improvement as crude jumped, and PET margins kept steady. As market moves into holiday mode ahead of Golden week, Q4 oil price outlook remain highly uncertain. Raw Materials Futures hold a minute forward premium, highlighting a potential market bottom.
PTA Futures and Forward Curve
PTA Futures improved modestly, lifting back into the recent range, with the current month up by around 0.5% versus last week.
Crude oil prices gained through the week with Brent rising from USD 67/bbl to spike over USD 70/bbl on Friday, their sharpest weekly rise since early June, when Israel launched a missile strike on Iran. This time, the jump was triggered by the news that Russia would introduce curbs on diesel exports, suggesting supply tightness.
The PX-N CFR spread continued to narrow down to USD 187/tonne, from USD 205/tonne a week earlier. PTA-PX CFR spread remained unchanged at USD USD 78/tonne.
PTA maintenance is expected to intensify in October as producers attempt to reduce liquidity and sure up margins, after remaining relatively subdued in September. However, progress is likely to be challenged by weak demand outlook as downstream markets reach their seasonal lows in Q4.
The PTA forward curve premium has remained relatively stable over the last week; the Nov’25 contract has a RMB 14/tonne premium to the current month’s contract, and Jan’26 with a RMB 38/tonne premium.
MEG Futures and Forward Curve
MEG Futures continued their recent slide, on weak fundamentals and pre-holiday selling pressure.
East China main port inventories increased by around 7.5% to 430k tonnes as arrivals increased and offtake remained depressed with little improvement.
Looking beyond the upcoming National Day holiday, inventory pressure is expected to increase in October on new domestic MEG capacity and slower downstream demand, keeping pressure on prices.
The MEG Futures forward curve broadly kept shape, although the current month softened marginally versus forward main months; Nov’25 holding a RMB 48/tonne discount over the current month, and Jan’26 holding a RMB 42/tonne discount.
PET Resin Export – Raw Material Spread and Forward Curve
Chinese PET resin export prices kept relatively steady at USD 765/tonne by Friday, on par with the previous week’s close, although some producers were willing to offer significant discounts.
The average weekly PET resin physical differential against raw material future costs increased USD 6/tonne to average USD 8/tonne last week. By Friday, the daily differential was at positive USD 8/tonne.
The raw material cost forward curve held steady with a small forward premium, Jan’26 with just a USD 2/tonne premium over the current month, and May’26 holding a USD 10/tonne premium.
PET Resin Futures and Forward Curve
PET Resin Futures strengthened slightly, recovering ground lost the previous week to keep in range. The next main month contract, Nov’25 was up by just 0.4% versus the previous week.
The current month increased slightly to RMB 5848/tonne (USD 820/tonne), up by USD 3/tonne from last week (inc. FX adjustment).
The average weekly premium of the Nov’25 PET Futures over Nov’25 Raw Material Futures moved slightly higher to USD 60/tonne, up USD 1/tonne. By Friday, the daily premium was USD 61/tonne.
The PET Resin Futures forward curve kept a relatively similar shape as the previous week, moderately increasing in backwardation through to Jan’26. Nov’25 was at a RMB 30/tonne (USD 4/tonne) discount over the current month; Jan’26 had RMB 40/tonne (USD 6/tonne) discount.
Concluding Thoughts
The PET resin market currently finds itself in the doldrums, weak seasonal demand predominates and pricing directionless because of the high degree of uncertainty in crude outlook.
Chinese PET resin producers continue to shutdown production to sure-up profitability. Over 5 million tonnes of PET resin capacity are currently shutdown.
Ahead of the upcoming Golden week holiday, the pricing spread between PET resin producers has also increased, as sizeable discounts are offered versus benchmark pricing, adding to market opaqueness.
Beyond Golden week, demand will see the combined threat: lack of seasonal uplift from the textile segment and tepid demand for bottle resin now deep into its offseason.
Adding to the challenge, India has also launched a sunset review of China PET import antidumping duties. In 2024, China exported over 226 thousand tonnes of PET resin to India; in the first 8-months of 2025, exports are over 130 thousand tonne (FY 200 thousand tonnes est.).
For PET hedging enquiries, please contact the risk management desk at MKirby@czarnikow.com.
For research and analysis questions, please get in touch with GLamb@czarnikow.com.
